Quote:
Originally Posted by Exhibitman
A better gauge for hobby health is to look at the passed lot percentages in the run of the mill auctions. They are still extraordinarily low by historical standards. Last week's Sterling Auction had 501 lots with ten passed lots. REA's March 19 auction had one passed lot. That indicates a very active buying public is still engaged heavily with the hobby and buying basically whatever is out there. Prices may be stagnant or falling on some classes of items but interest is still sky-high.
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Adam - I guess I'm not as familiar with the thinking behind why passed lot percentages are a meaningful metric as a gauge for the health of the hobby. Could I trouble you to unpack that a bit more about why you view it as meaningful?
Unless I'm mistaken, a passed lot is merely a lot that didn't get any bids. I suppose part of the fun there is where the auction house puts the initial bid, and whether that's an attractive price point. But even if just one person bids, then the item wouldn't fail, right? I suppose it's also possible that if the item has a reserve that isn't met, then that might count as a passed lot.
Part of me also wonders whether a big part of the calculus here is the question of whether the auction house is deliberately turning away relatively worthless pieces (maybe a 1988 Donruss common in BVG 6 as an example) such that they never get to auction, and therefore never have a chance to fail because no one will bid the minimum $10 on them.