[raulus]

Predictions on pieces like this are always a fool’s errand, although as fortune’s fool, perhaps I’ll proffer a few lame and mostly self-evident observations.

Not many of us have the deep pockets to swim in these deep waters. Even if we do have pockets so deep, we might prefer to avoid sinking it all into a single card, and instead prefer to spread our wealth around.

As a result, I suspect that the final price will largely be governed by 2-4 potential buyers. Although it’s possible that others might be in the mix, including someone for whom this might represent their only foray into the hobby, my inclination is to guess that these potential buyers are either major Koufax fanboyz/collectors or else serious collectors of this set. Just how crazy those buyers are willing to get will largely be a question of how they’re feeling in the last couple of days before and especially the day of the auction closing.

Do their animal spirits come alive? Do they throw caution to the wind and let it rip? How drunk do they get? And in the days/weeks before the auction, what else is swirling in their lives that emotionally pushes them one way or the other? How long have they been saving up their pennies for this specific card in this specific grade? Do they get emotionally attached to the idea that they have to win this one, no matter what? Do they start mentally preparing a spot on the wall where this one will go, such that they already view it as theirs, and decide to not back down even in the face of someone equally determined to win it? As you can tell, I’m projecting a bit now.

One of the other elements here is how often these babies come to market in this high grade. It looks like there’s been a handful over the last couple of years, which probably helps to satiate some of the pent up demand out there. For high grade pieces that haven’t come to market during the pandemic, often the pent up demand is pretty overpowering, with those pieces going absofreakinglutely nuts.

But getting back to those potential buyers, since so many of these questions are so uniquely personal, are dependent on future events, and for people that are probably largely unknown to most of us, it’s impossible to really even begin to attempt to predict with any degree of precision.

Having said all of that, my general sense is that when high graded, low pop pieces for inner circle hall of famers, particularly for their early years come to market, the market continues to surprise me. Even shock me to a great extent.

Accordingly, I tend to be inclined to guess high. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one approaches or even exceeds $400k (with the juice, natch). But like some of the earlier comments, my sense is that the range here is wide, anywhere from $250-500, depending on just how many players decide to get into it, and just how nuts they’re willing to go to make sure that they land this piece.