[Exhibitman]

The best record for evaluating the issue is what happened as MLB integrated over the decades after 1947 (took the BoSox until 1959). We all focus on the stars and superstars who emerged from the Negro Leagues (Aaron, Banks, Campanella, Doby, Mays, Minoso, Newcombe, Jackie Robinson, etc.) and the guys who lost careers (Paige, Charleston, Gibson, etc.). To better address the question of what MLB would have looked like without the racism, we probably should focus on the guys who were brought up in the 1950s-1970s when the teams were de-segregated and actively looking for talent of color. Not just stars like Clemente, Frank Robinson, Gibson, Brock, Stargell, McCovey, Jenkins, and so on, but also the guys who were average or who were bench warmers. I think there are some studies out there that American-born black players had their highest level of representation in MLB in the late 20th century and have fallen back substantially since then, primarily losing ground to Latin American players. I think we'd have had a similar situation in the prewar era, with a variety of players from superstars down to bench warmers, as a part of the picture, competitive but not necessarily the dominant part.

As far as assigning a % of pop who woulda been stars, there is a structural bias to that analysis. The early integrating teams were very concerned with having too many black players, so they staggered MLB call-ups (the Dodgers), avoided having majority black line-ups, and consequently left the lesser caliber players out of integration. There really weren't 24 roster spots for black players, more like a handful per team. The result is that the early black MLB players were of a much higher caliber on average than their white teammates. They had to be, or they were gone. Look at the MVP voting from 1949-1959 in the NL: white guys won in 50 and 52. Makes it look like the black guys were dominating MLB. A handful of superstars were, but there were very few back players who weren't really good who stayed on MLB rosters. The Yankees weren't going to use up their 'black roster spot' with a lousy player., so they got Ellie Howard (MVP, 1963). Like the term or not, it really was a form of structural racism that remained in place for many years after the color barrier was broken.