Quote:
Originally Posted by steve B
Generally, but there's a whole thing about who is on what base and how many outs. Run expectancy.
So the risk/reward of a steal
Lets say cobb gets a single.
No outs, runner on first will expect .94 for the rest of the inning.
If he steals second that's good! 1.17
If he gets caught? Oh, down to .56
Generally the father the runners are and the fewer outs the better off you are.
But as those odds get better, the reward is less and the risk larger.
I'm not so sure I agree with the math, but the people that do calculate the expected runs for each season. And I'd bet that the teams get more detailed, like which pitcher and what runner/batter combination.
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Steve, I agree with you, which is part of my point. Those factors/percentages they are using today, are based on today's game, and the number of HRs that are being hit. I did not, and don't have the data or resources to, do the math, and am only offering an opinion based on the use of some logic. My guess is that if you were to run the same kind of math using information and data from back in Cobb's prime playing days, the answers are going to definitely be different. Depending on what other teammates Cobb would have batting behind him if he were playing today, I agree with you that if he had some HR bashers coming up behind him, his manager would be screaming at him to stay put and not take as many chances as he may otherwise to steal a base. Now if he just had a bunch of singles hitters behind him.............