Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss
Bob, I pretty much agree with your entire post. However, the Doyle is a bit of an oddball in that: the t206 set is the granddaddy of all trading card sets (regardless of subject/sport), the Doyle is needed to complete that set, and (I believe) only 9 Doyles are know to exist, one of which is in a museum/collection permanently. Thus, there can only ever be 8 complete, 524 card T206 sets.
The Spring 2022 Mile High auction had a t206 Wagner (the Charlie Sheen Wagner) and a Joe Doyle NY Natl. The Wagner sold for $3,060,000. The Doyle sold for $1,030,000. Clearly the Wagner is more “valuable”. But, for what it’s worth, the Doyle had 44 bidders while the Wagner had 45 bidders.
I think this is a great discussion, and I agree with most statements, including rarity vs scarcity in relation to value. But the Joe Doyle Natl is an oddball bc of its roll as the necessary spike piece in the greatest set of all time.
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Yes, I know, and that is also part of why measuring "demand" is so very hard. Had I said to pick between a T206 Wagner and say a T206 Cobb, that's a no brainer, everyone will go for a Wagner. But make it between a Wagner and a Doyle Nat'l, and now you might get some people to have to think about it for second.
As you point out, the Doyle Nat'l is actually much rarer in terms of the actual number that exist than the Wagner. And anyone trying to complete the T206 set is obviously going to want both cards. But if given a choice where you can only ever have one card or the other, but not both, and money is not an issue, which card do you suspect the most people to choose? And so in essence, the one card the most people are going to pick between the two would seem to then have a greater level of demand overall. How you can quantify and then measure that demand level difference in a statistical or other manner, I don't know, unless you look at the difference in price people are willing to pay for those two cards maybe. And because so many more people would likely take a Wagner over a Doyle, the demand for the Wagner is greater, and therefore the price for the Wagner will likely always be greater. Which it was proven to be in that recent Mile High auction you referenced.
And don't forget, not everyone necessarily wants to complete a T206 set. And for those people just looking to collect a great card, the T206 Wagner is the pinnacle, the holy grail of baseball cards that even those who've never actively collected baseball cards in their life still are likely aware and have heard or know of. Then ask the same people about a T206 Doyle Nat'l card, and get ready for tons of blank stares. It ends up being a great question and conundrum then as to why else wouldn't the bidders in that Mile High auction pay the same, or even more, for that Doyle Nat'l card versus what ended up being paid for that Wagner.