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Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
Well of course you're not an idiot lol. But if it was as easy as you think, then why isn't every fund manager in America just buying up AMZN? It could go up, it could go way down (antitrust risk for example, but 100 other reasons too.) Look at NVDA, I would have said it was a great buy 50 points ago and it keeps tanking. Buy low sell high is just not that doable in real time.
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Probably because hedge funds don't want a very conservative gradual growth for themselves, they need to set record numbers. I don't think hedge funds reward managers with those fat bonuses if they play a slow and safe game. But I'm not in banking, so I don't know. My strategy is for a normal dude trying to buy safe picks and hold for the long haul so that one day I won't have to sell my labor to another man to survive and may hopefully live out my last years in a modicum of comfort before death.
Some of my picks are down 3 months after I buy. Often, actually. Some are down 12 months later. But I'm doing a LOT better than if I'd bought those same stocks when everything was setting records, aren't I? We know at a glance when things are setting records its high, and when the market has plummeted 20%, things are relatively low. Probably not the absolute low, that's the fools errand, but I cannot possibly do better than I am now by buying these same stocks when they are setting records. Maybe I will lose, but I will lose a lot less when I actively manage and shave 20-25%+ off my buy-in price.