Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowman
It's not really a question anymore though. We have the data to be able to answer that now. Every arm eventually tires out. And a tired arm from even an elite pitcher is still outperformed by a fresh arm from a good reliever. And you can't really know when that elite SP's arm is going to tire out. It typically happens very quickly. They're throwing fire until all of a sudden they're getting shelled. And the SP can't tell you either. They always think they're fine. Egos get involved too. So you go to the data. You look at things like xFIP rates and WHIP rates and K/BB rate curves by pitch count and some of the more advanced sabermetrics for each guy over the course of a season, and you pull him when that curve shows he's most likely about to drop.
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But for decades and decades, elite pitchers went the distance, and until very recently went 7, if they were pitching well, and countless low ERA seasons throughout MLB history support that they didn't lose that much effectiveness? How do you reconcile that with the notion that even elite pitchers should be yanked after 4 routinely?