Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowman
So, in our example here with the Dodgers having an expected win% of 0.641 vs the Padres, the likelihood of the Dodgers winning a series against the Padres could be estimated as:
Dodgers 5-game win% = 75.0%
Dodgers 7-game win% = 78.5%
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So a 3.5% difference in win probability between a 5-game series and a 7-game series?
Doesn't seem like it's enough to get too fussy about the Dodgers losing a short series. But I suppose if you were banking on that 3.5% to be the difference between victory and defeat, then your fussiness level might rise.