[Exhibitman]

Here's the thing: we all see what we want to see.

Dollar-based assets are terrible, unless they aren't. My wife's grandfather, who was a machinist, got lucky and bought a mess of Treasuries when interest rates were over 10%. When inflation came down, he ended up with a big winner.

Hard assets, also terrible until they are not. Case in point: gold. The inflation-adjusted price of gold was equivalent to over $9,000 an ounce in 1979-1980, at its all-time peak. My father bought a tube of Krugerrands in the mid-1970s and sold it a few years later for a giant profit. Timing was everything.

Income-producing assets, really dependent on what the asset is and the degree to which it is subject to outside forces. Take rental real estate. Big asset with a track record of performance. Until it hits a wall of political resistance. Like rent control or the shelter in place eviction freezes of the pandemic. Even a dirtbag tenant who uses the non-emergency law can remain in place for months before he can be dug out of the property (my clients have had more than a few of those). No income and you still pay the carrying costs throughout. If you have a thousand units, you can handle it readily. if you have a single building, a few nasty deadbeats and vacancies can kill you. I know of more than one real estate entity facing capital calls due to cash flow issues stemming from losses of tenants and inability to evict deadbeats.

None of it is assured, it just depends on timing and specific risks to the asset. That's why you have to diversify and take profits. At the recent Burbank show a guy came to my table wanting to trade. He opened his custom Zion card case (which they all have now) and pulled out a stack of limited-edition autographed cards...of Walker Buehler. Oops! Probably should have traded some of those when the profits were there and picked up other players, like Tatis. OK, bad example.

You know what is concrete, though? Paying off your debts. Borrowing to invest is a fool's errand for average people. Debt for baseball cards? Puh-leese: that box break is not going to beat the credit cost. Again, back to my wife's grandfather, not a sophisticated guy but knew from the Depression that debt was the key. Own your stuff and owe no one. That's how you weather downturns. He paid off his house and saved to pay for new things. Not very fashionable, but he paid for both his granddaughters' college after their deadbeat dad walked out, and left enough money to secure his grocery clerk daughter's retirement, too. That's what I aim for: to own my stuff and not to owe jack-squat to anyone, maybe leave a legacy for my kid. Of course, it will probably be Ruth cards...