This is a fascinating discussion.
A modest proposal: For anyone with one of those subscriptions that show realized auction values, why don't you pick 50 vintage cards (or photos that have >5 sales) - 40 HoF-ers and 10 commons from key sets and run the numbers to see the % change month to month for the last 36 months? I'm guessing someone has already done this. If so, can someone post this? Otherwise, it is all anecdotal, which includes some really compelling examples, but it is hard to extrapolate for the whole vintage market from just a few examples.
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