Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss
I have been collecting on and off since the early 1980's. I watched prices skyrocket (relative term) and the hobby get silly into the early 1990s, when my brother and I sold everything and got out. I found Ebay in 2000 and started collecting again -- the big difference this time around was that people had cards authenticated and graded. I sold everything in late 2003 to pay student loans. I did not get back into the hobby again until 2014. Since that time, I have been a consistent and steady buyer of rare and very old (pre WWI) blue chip cards and sets. Why?....
Over the past 40+/- years, every time I got back into the hobby, the "greats" were always worth more, often substantially more, than what they were worth when I exited the hobby last time. For example, my favorite card from my first collection was my 1955 Clemente. This Ex 55 Clemente in 1990 was like $250. That same card in 2003 was like $500. That same card in 2014 (sitting in say a PSA 5 flip) was around $1,000 (today its like $4,000). In other words, the value of an Ex 1955 Clemente seemed to at least double every 10 years, and in some cases perform better than that. And this is not just Clemente. All the greats, especially rookies from 1948+ (modern to me) and the oldies/pre WWII (vintage to me), were always worth more each time I got back into the hobby.
Now I love the real old stuff. So when I got back into the hobby in 2014 and then took a real deep dive in 2016, I focused on the old and rare blue chips,- My theory was that my Clemente example above also rang true for Cobb, Ruth, Wagner, Jackson, T206s, etc. And I was correct.
Punch line -- "Good Cards" are a very safe and proven investment over time; at least over the last 40+/- years. There are peaks and valleys. But over the long run, if you are patient, you buy good stuff, and you can hold onto your cardboard, you will make a profit, and often a very solid profit in baseball cards.
I cannot speak to modern (1980-today), and certainly do not believe in the long term prospects of the "shiny stuff". Nor can I speak to any other sport card besides baseball cards. And there are exceptions in the old and rare baseball card world where values do go down overtime and do not return (yet), like super rare/niche stuff that may catch fire when a few people set out to collect it (e.g., T208, T206 freaks, T213-3 overprints, etc). But on whole, the old, rare, and blue chip baseball stuff will go up over time.
Cards are a lot like land (unimproved real property). They dont generate income and may actually cost you some each year. But if you buy the right cards, like buying the right land, you will make money down the line.
I expect we will see some pull back on card values; although, I think there is real chance that Cobb, Ruth, Wagner etc only keep going up because there is real scarcity there and they are not making any more of it. But if that pull back happens, a card in 2023 will be worth more than it was in 2015 (even if its worth less than it was in 2021), and will be worth more in 2030 than it is 2023.
Buy good stuff and hold it. Be long in the cardboard you buy; don't day (or year) trade in cards.
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