When you are looking for rare players/cards, you also have to remember that even if there aren't a lot (or any) recent sales you can look at for comparisons, that doesn't mean private sales aren't going on behind the scenes that don't normally get reported anywhere. In which case you may also need to expand your your contacts and where/how you look for such cards. Always just going to a mainstream site like Ebay, or the major auction houses that are out there may not yield you the opportunities you want. In which case, coming to a forum like this, and posting what you are looking for on the B/S/T forum, may generate some contacts and opportunities you would not otherwise come across.
Take Leon's story for example, where he says he paid up so the previous owner wouldn't put those items into a public auction. Or even closer to home, you can go to our own B/S/T forum and see members making private sales, or even trades, for certain rare and unusual cards/players. Those kinds of sales and trades normally don't get reported anywhere.
Plus, you also have to be careful that there aren't people out there trying to manipulate the market on some cards. It is fairly well known that on occasions, we have witnessed some rather obvious fake sales on platforms like Ebay, that then get reported on some valuation sites, and make it look like certain cards are currently going for way more than they should be.
Bottom line, as others have opined, is to offer what you feel comfortable with paying. Absent ongoing and numerous sales comps to view and go off of, that is the best you can do when it comes to rare and obscure cards. Good luck.
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