[Rhotchkiss]

Apologies for the lengthy post:

Phil, I do not believe in “timing the market” (probably bc my timing is terrible). Also, I am not a flipper. When I buy something for investment, whether it be a card, a stock, real estate, etc. it is because I am long on that asset and I believe it will safely increase in value over time. I also do not look for home runs. Rather, I weigh downside risk as much as upside. I am very happy with slow and steady appreciation with relatively nominal downside. I got back into collecting cards for investment (in 2015 after a decent-sized break), as a store of long-term wealth, not as a way to make short term money; the hobby seems to have different ideas. With that in mind, my "collection" is relatively narrowly-focused because (1) I want to be an expert in what I collect and it’s easiest to be an expert in a few things rather than many, and (2) I believe that only a small band of cards/collectibles fit my desired profile. Thus, I decided long ago I would focus on pre-war only, and buy primarily those sets and players that I felt were “blue chip” and/or had unique qualities/staying power:

T206, 1914 CJ, 1933 Goudey, e107, W600, Rose Co. PC, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, Joe Jackson, and other issues of stud or unique players such as Young, Matty, Wajo, Cubs, Thorpe, Plank, Lajoie.

If you are looking to put $50k into cards over the next 6 months, this is where I would place it, and I would focus on rarest and/or best looking examples. For example, if you are going to buy a T206 Cobb, get a rare back. If you want a Cy Young, go after a W600 or Rose Co. If you want a Plank, get a T variation (bc they are rare) or the T206, which is likely now out of reach. I strongly believe all of the above will increase in value over time. I also think its ok to "over pay" for some of these things, especially when they are rare.

As far as longer-term items that I feel may be undervalued today, here are a few, in my opinion:

1. T205 set. T206 is getting unobtainable for most and T205 has most of the same players, lots of cool variations, etc. I think it is "silver" to T206's "gold"
2. T206 Magie error -- T206 has exploded, Magie is one of the "Big 4", and Plank has really taken off, meaning all those pining for Plank may now go Magie
3. T206 Demmitt and O'Hara Polar Bear -- these would be 5-6 in the T206 Big 6, so for similar reasons as above with Magie
4. T206 rare back HOFers, the rare the back the better and the better the HOFer the better (beating a dead horse with T206, but it is the greatest set of all time and appeals to the widest audience)
5. Lou Gehrig - his stuff just seems undervalued to me
6. Honus Wagner, especially portraits-- he is one of the best ever, part of the inaugural HOF class, and the face of the most famous collectable in the world. As the hobby gets bigger, his name will only grow and very few people can have "the" Wagner, but people will want a Wagner

If this $50k is a relatively once-in-a-lifetime event and you want to invest it long term in cards, go Babe Ruth. Ideally something from Red Sox days or early Yankee years. Cobb is amazing (like half my collection is Cobb), but Ruth is the King, plain and simple. Nothing is safer and more certain to increase over time than Babe Ruth.

If you cant find Ruth, I actually put both Wagner and Joe Jackson on par with Cobb for investment, considering how expensive most things Cobb have gotten over the passed few years. As mentioned,. Wagner is the face of the most famous collectible in a rapidly growing asset-class and Joe Jackson was a great player, has hollywood and hobby lore, has the 1914-15 CJ cards (iconic), and there are so few cards of his. Thus, if you cant find a Ruth that makes sense, I would suggest a portrait pose of Wagner or an E90-1, 1914 CJ, or some other Joe Jackson item