[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Nice try with the name drop. Let's not pretend like you know what you're talking about here. You don't build statistical models.

I'm a professional statistician/data scientist. Building models like this is what I do for work every day. The primary work of a statistician is to perform hypothesis tests using data and mathematics. Just because you don't understand how it works doesn't mean that it in fact does not work.

This isn't a difficult problem to understand or to solve for. If you want to know whether or not an MBA sticker has a statistically significant impact on selling prices, then all you have to do is gather enough data (a few hundred sales is more than sufficient) and build a statistical model to perform any number of hypothesis tests. You can control for other variables by including them in the model. Variables you might want to control for could be: Which grading company graded the card, the grade of the card, which card it is, centering, pop count, sticker or no sticker, date of sale, a market index to tether to the date, and numerous other things you might want to track like stains, creases, focus/registration, etc. Then you can just build a simple (or complex if you want) regression model or an ANOVA/ANCOVA model, or some machine learning models, or a multilevel mixed effects model, or whatever other model you want to build that tests hypotheses. This is pretty elementary stuff in the world of statistics. It's really not that complicated. Models will estimate the impact of each variable included in the model, and it will also output a P-value that informs you whether or not that impact is statistically significant (the more sales data you have in your model, the more power the model has in determining statistical significance).

But I'm sure you know all this stuff because you worked "with" the Bureau of Labor Statistics lol.

I perfectly trust that you have more statistical skill than myself and I did like to hear the defense of the variables that most would not take into account as in my mind the addition or subtraction of these variables is why statistics are generally garbage. Is there a greater chance of a gun injury if one exists in the home… well no crap, will there be more stair falls in a multistory home versus a single level ranch home? Yes! Wow, that was a useful study.

My question lies on this, after listing a plethora of variables needing analysis you state “a few hundred sales is more than sufficient”. Seems it would not be as that group of a few hundred may contain single examples of many of those items, two, or be excluded completely as it is being culled from many areas used by new or less informed collectors such as PWCC and eBay and has no access to private sales.

The idea that this is a statistical fact requires a large leap of faith and should not cause some stone wall statements of hyperbole touting the need for this. I’ll let you enjoy the service, my personal opinion is that the cards you used as examples were well graded based on the chipping and corner wear. Yes, some other areas were exceeding but the grades are a sum of the parts. If the sticker makes you pleased and happier as a collector then please do.

I consider these services snipe hunts and it’s not changing. I do not believe in a hobby that has no real price stability and changes daily that a market of constant end value flux can be measurable without faith.

So after all that time wasted in my ramblings… do what you want for yourself but please understand the sales pitch is not going to have any true impact. You are a corvette salesman pulling over an Amish buggy to make a sale. It’s not going to be easy.