I don't understand what the end goal here is for Putin and Russia. Let's assume that the stated reason for the attacks is true and that it is to prevent the Ukraine from joining NATO, creating an alliance sitting right on Russia's border to defend. Now, let's say Ukraine welcomed Russia in with open arms and flowers at soldiers' feet two weeks. Wouldn't that create the exact situation where NATO is right on Russia's new border? Does Putin plan on using Ukraine to create the world's largest moat or work with China to build a modern Great Wall? If not, then what good does usurping Ukraine do to release the perceived NATO threat to Russia? It is not like if the US just took over Mexico, where at least the new US border to defend would shrink by 80%.
At this stage, I worry about what graceful exit exists for Russia. If Russia just "gives up," it is a major embarrassment to a country who identifies itself by its military supremacy. Putin does not seem like someone willing to leave without a clear "win." But, it is going to be nearly impossible for him to take over, occupy and convert a country with 40 million people that seemingly are not excited to welcome Russian overlords. So, the past two weeks will drag on for months or years.
Call me short-sighted, but I don't know why we don't just create the Keystone pipeline as a public entity that the government can just tap whenever there is energy unrest in the world. Appease the environmentalists by shuddering the Pipeline when the world energy situation is in equilibrium (or at the point where natural energy eliminates the need for fossil fuels), and then fire it up when Russia and/or OPEC try a power play. The fear of energy supply disruption is having a far larger disruptive impact on NATO operations than the actual attack on Ukraine. If the US had the ability to flip a switch for a year to ramp up oil supply, OPEC countries still need to feed their citizens and create man-made islands in the desert. So, you could literally tell Putin, "one more bomb, bullet or dirty look on Ukrainian soil, and you will never live to see a drop of energy sold to the Western world." It sure seems cheaper to build the pipeline and not operate it than gifting untrained Ukranian military billions in defensive weapons, including back-door Polish warplanes (most of which will become Russian weapons as they overwhelm the Ukranian resistance).
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