Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyruscobb
I see the opposite occurring - card values decreasing.
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Everything you predict could happen and vintage cards would still be a "hedge against inflation". If inflation strengthens and persists (which seems likely, IMO), the Fed will tighten credit, interest rates will rise, and the economy will go into a recession. You are correct that this will cause downward pressure on card values, but only in the near term. The same is true for home values, stock prices, etc.
Assuming inflation is eventually brought under control, interest rates stabilize, and the economy booms again, card prices (like all assets) would be expected to regain their relative value, but in inflated dollars. This is unlike bond values, for example. If I own a bond that matures 10 years from now, I will be paid its face value at maturity regardless of how much inflation has reduced the purchasing power of those dollars during the intervening ten years.
Vintage cards are inherently "hedges against inflation" because their supply is fixed. That doesn't mean they will be good investments. In order to retain their value as investments they will have to remain popular. If their popularity disappears (boomers age out, baseball gets tuned out, etc.), they will be bad investments no matter what inflation does.