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Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss
Nice post G1911. Thank you
Regarding this statement "Not to be dark, but I think it is reality that an influx of young collectors is needed or as the aging vintage collector base dies out they will get pennys for the dollar on their stuff."
Here is what I know, why I disagree, and why I have put a good deal of money into very old and rare vintage cards over the past 6+ years: I started collecting in 1983 and lived through the junk wax era, eventually getting out bc things made no sense (like now). I got back into cards in 2000, sold out in 2003, and got back into cards in 2015 (and still actively collecting). That is almost 40 years in and out of the hobby. The one thing that is true over those 40 years is that the good cards are worth more today than were in the 1980s, many by multiples and multiples, and each time I got back into collecting the good cards were worth more than the last time I collected. By "good cards", I mean HOFers and rookie cards of retired stars and HOFers.
40 years spans is a pretty long time. And Ruths, Cobbs, T206s, as well as Nolan Ryans and Frank Robinsons are more expensive now then ever. If history is an indicator of the future, and it often is, the "good cards" will continue to retain value, and likely increase, over the next 40 years. Well, that's what I am betting on.
All that said, sometimes I find it very hard to look at what cards are selling for and not think "man, I should just sell everything." Especially when I consider your thesis may end up being correct. However, there are two reasons I do not (i) l I would rather have the cardboard than the paper, right now and (ii) I fear if I sell something I will never be able to get ot back (or it ma cost me triple to get it back).
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I agree with you. There is a big difference between T206 Wagners, 52 Mantles and ‘normal cards’. That stuff I don’t doubt will continue to climb. But collections of 50’s material, T206 sets outside the top 10 cards, rare cards of common players, this is what I have doubts on.
T206 commons have generally climbed up, though after inflation adjustment it’s less than most think. I think this is so because there has been these generational influxes in past. My grandfather collected Goudeys and Zeenuts as a boy. His five sons all collected as kids in the 50’s to the early 70’s. My father bought me packs at Target in the 90’s as a young boy, and showed me the remnants of his collection (he sold most of it in the late 70’s to buy a stereo. Oops). We then collected together, to some extent still do (he doesn’t buy, but I show him my cards and we talk our childhood hobby every time we meet up). That’s almost a century of my family, father to son passing it along. I think that’s pretty normal.
I don’t think the next generation has this. They grew up without cards, or cards of Asian animated characters instead (not a criticism, just a different hobby). None of my classmates collected sports cards in my youth. Collecting physical things isn’t so popular in general among the youth, it’s a flipper flipping to a flipper who thinks it will go still higher, whether it’s cards, J’s, crypto or funkopops. Baseball continues to have its fan base age and other sports take the limelight. I don’t see a realistic scenario where your Wagner isn’t worth a fortune, but will anyone care about my T206 Joss once the collector generation ages out or sadly dies? I don’t know. In 25 years when todays Wal Mart flipper has achieved financial security and has surplus, they may look back fondly on their card flipping days and come to collect. Or they may not, just bouncing to the next buck to be made, how they got to cards. Will there be a market of younger people to take all the 52 Mantles that hit the block when that generation dies? I’m 100% sure there will be. But how about for 52 Sniders?
I don’t know the answer, and it’s different for me I suppose. A crash I don’t see as bad, I’m just spending beer money to buy the cards I really wanted when I was 12 and take a break from the serious things in life. I intend to keep everything but dupes until I die and my heirs dump my crap for $100 to a greasy pawn shop owner. But if I saw it as investment, I’d be dumping all my 50’s stuff, B tier cards etc. while there is a living market paying these huge prices for fairly common material. The marquee type cards, the top .01%, I’d hold, those are safe. I’d be pretty scared that it’s only the top 1% of 30 year olds that can even really get into vintage collecting much. The barriers to entry, large print runs of most stuff and that much of it will hit the market constantly when a generation ages away, would definitely give me pause. I think we’re coming up on the first generations that were not guided into cards by their fathers. I’m not sure there are enough new collectors to increase the size of the buyer pool as the current group of vintage card collectors begins to fade away in the next 20 years.
But then again, I’m wrong a lot. I’m the idiot who thought Clemente was overvalued already ten years ago.