[tschock]

Originally Posted by BobC

Good post Scott. I've been saying the same thing all along trying to get people to understand that in looking at and comparing players from different times and eras, you can't just look at baseball numbers and statistics alone, and completely ignore the context of all non-direct baseball factors. As you said, there are superior methods and science, among other things, that really explain the differences in today's players to those of the past. But statisticians still try to explain everything with just the baseball numbers and stats they have. They completely ignore the human element and all the intangibles athletes bring to the table. Statisticians ignore those kinds of things because they can't measure a player's heart or their competitiveness, and they just tell you those are meaningless things anyway because their baseball numbers and stats override all. And don't ask them to prove anything as they'll just keep telling you they don't have time, and you wouldn't understand them anyway. Statistics are fine and have a very good place in predicting behaviors and outcomes, but there is no definitive outcome to a question like who's the best lefty of all time. And because there is no outcome to prove that some statistician's formula is right or wrong, they simply assert their formula is the answer. And in doing so, ignore the context of players in different times and eras, the human element, and in my opinion, commen sense. The statisticians can't prove they're right, but we can't prove they're definitively wrong. So they get away with it.

To put it another way: If a statistician's model is good at analyzing the past, then it should be reasonably good for predicting the future. Otherwise your model needs adjusting to consider other factors. That didn't seem to play out very well when 'the best team in baseball' this year didn't even get close to winning the World Series (as one example).