Quote:
Originally Posted by AndrewJerome
This is a fascinating subject. I really enjoy analyzing baseball history and player performance.
There seem to be a few disconnects in this debate.
One disconnect is how much weight to place on counting stats. Pro-Spahn posters in this thread rely on longevity and counting stats with what appears to be a decent peak, with a pretty good ERA+ across his peak years etc. Anti-Spahn posters believe he was a pretty average pitcher in regard to “stuff” since his K/9 doesn’t blow your hair back and wins are team dependent. He pitched a lot of innings and a lot of years, but innings eaters can’t get to GOAT status if they don’t provide elite innings. Essentially that Spahn’s peak is not enough to be the best lefty ever, even with all the counting stats. Koufax’s stats are obviously much different. One very good year, 5 off the charts years, some mediocre years, early retirement and nowhere near the overall counting stats of Spahn. Anti-Koufax posters essentially dismiss him outright because his lack of counting stats eliminate him from lefty GOAT status. He essentially didn’t pitch long enough to even be in the conversation. I tend to agree that the weaknesses of both Spahn and Koufax as described above eliminate them from lefty GOAT status. Both clearly were great pitchers though.
Another disconnect here is how to compare players by era. Snowman appears to be arguing that Grove’s pitching competition was weak and therefore his stats should be discounted a great deal. The ERA titles, ERA+ etc is tainted by weak pitching competition. Essentially that Grove was much better than his pitching peers, but since his pitching peers were very bad, him being much better than them should not be as impressive as the stats appear. I have always wondered about this, but I have no way of figuring out how to crunch the numbers to argue one way or the other. The 1920s / early 1930s batting averages went nuts. Hitters went crazy. How much of this was a result of bad pitching during those years? Anyway, Snowman, I am curious how stats can help us figure out which time periods were strong and which time periods are weak. It has always been something of a mystery to me. On a similar note, WAR is a bit misleading to me since it seems to value relative to replacement where replacement level is determined differently every year. The value of a replacement level player could be very different in a time period where quality of play overall is very high as compared to a time period where quality of play was lower. But how in the world can we figure out relative quality of play?
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Randy Johnson is best lefty of all time and is in serious discussion for best pitcher of all time as well.
To get to your question, any argument to be made that Koufax's peers were better than Grove's also means that Randy Johnson's were better than Koufax's. Johnson's were indeed better than Koufax's, as were Koufax's better than Grove's.
The measurable's such as running speed, throwing speed, height, strength, bat speed, all show that players have gotten continually better generation after generation. This is fact. I can show more charts in another post. It is not a matter of evolution, although selective breeding is a factor. Most of it is a result from the sheer number of population growth and the addition of more parts of the world to draw players from.
Realize that we are on the cusp of having 8 billion people in the world right now to draw from, compared to 2001 where there were 6.2 billion, to 1965 where there were only 3.8 billion people in the world to draw from...and in 1935 appx 2.3 billion.
In reality, Grove and Koufax's population in the US and world wide viability of players to choose from, were closer in comparison. Wheras Johnson had it tougher, and anyone after Johnson even tougher.
People from yesteryear don't like to hear that. I'm from yesteryear, but the reality is the reality.
When you add the selective breeding of people who have found mates with the purpose of creating athletic off spring to make millions, and the advances in sports science to train them at a young age to maximize their MPH(with command) and their bat speed, that creates a vast difference between generations above and beyond what the logic of more people to draw from creates.
Of course Grove's generation actually excluded minorities from the US, making his peers even more worse than Koufax's.
However, in 1965 the league was still 78% white. In 2001 it was only 60% white so it is clear that the pool of players reached further out in 2001 than in even 1965. 1965 was still more homogonized than 2001.
That is X many more people in the world who can throw 95 MPH(with control) for Johnson and modern players to compete against, X many more people who can hit 430 foot home runs, X many more people who can throw a cannon from the hole at SS, etc...
There is more of that to expound upon and I will in a week, but Johnson does not even need that aspect to best Koufax. It really isn't that close, and I address some of the common things the Koufax camp says(and have addressed them earlier in the thread).
Best ERA+ seasons:
Johnson....Koufax.....Grove
197........190............217
195........186............189
193........160............185
188........159............185
184........143............175
181........122............165
176........105............160
152........101............160
135.........93
135.........Not good enough to pitch enough innings to qualify
118.........Not good enough to pitch enough innings to qualify
112.........Not good enough to pitch enough innings to qualify
Johnson had unrivaled physical tools. No pitcher in MLB history can match his physical tools. He was six foot eleven and threw over 100 MPH with a ridiculous slider....WITH COMMAND(after a few year learning curve). Some pitchers had one or two of those tools, but nobody had ALL of those tools like he did.
Let me explain why the physical tools are of such importance. Why would you take another pitcher over Johnson if the other pitcher was ten inches shorter, threw three miles an hour slower, had lesser command, and similar or less breaking pitches? The only other factor would be mental make up. Do they have the ability to handle being a professional player? Johnson obviously answered that question. Do they have the mental ability to thrive for a long time? Johnson answered that question YES.
Environments a player plays in severely muddles or hides statistical measurements, but the tools are concrete. The tools are a known. A lot of the statistical measurements are unknowns because environment muddles them. An environment can give false perceptions of ones true ability. Six foot eleven cannot be muddled. 100 MPH cannot be muddled. Nasty slider cannot be muddled. Command cannot be muddled. The only other obstacle is mental make up and thrive to succeed. He obviously passed that only unknown hurdle.
So when you are weighing all this, the physical tools play a vital role in solving the dilemma of cross era comparison.
Johnson had the results to back it up.
Johnson was umpire proof. He didn't need the inches off the plate like Maddux and Glavine often did to excel to the levels they did.
He was era proof. He didn't need lineups in the league where numbers six through nine were zero threats and hit basically zero power...like which occurred in other eras where scoring was depressed, or era's like the 30's where only the elite few were legit power threats.
In fact, he pitched in probably the toughest era to be a pitcher, with the live ball, DH, and steroids. Any pitcher that can handle the toughest environment to pitch in, surely would have no problem in the eras where it was pitcher friendly.
He didn't need a dead ball to excel or last a long time.
Johnson was stadium proof. He didn't need to rely on a certain stadium to make him dominant. Make no doubt, DOdger stadium helped Koufax tremendously.
Johnson had peak dominance and longevity dominance.
He was the guy that if you lined all these historic pitchers up at a local baseball field standing shoulder to shoulder, then watched him unleash what he had, he would be the guy every single coach would pick. Coaches would be drooling.
If you want to play the "what if" game people do with Koufax, realize that JOhnson missed two plus seasons worth of starts in his prime too. What if johnson didn't get hurt?
What if Clemens was not taking steroids and then the second place finisher(randy johnson) adds TWO MORE Cy Youngs?
My favorite what if? What if Johnson got to pitch off an eight inch higher mound, and had strikes called at the chest??
What if Koufax pitched in Coors Field half his career games...then there wouldn't even be this thread because Koufax's numbers would look much different, even though his ability would not be any different
