Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
At this point, the bottom line for me is, if you're going to authenticate a Joe Jackson autograph which you know is going to be worth an awful lot of money, you better be damn sure. I don't see how Steve Grad could have been damn sure. At best he could have thought it more likely than not authentic, and that doesn't seem good enough to put that permanent blessing on it.
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Without commenting on the authenticity of the autograph, it should be noted that the "more likely than not" is the threshold accepted for experts in trial. It can be dolled up in more flowery language like "within a reasonable degree of certainty," but it all boils down to "at least 51% sure." Now, that can certainly be higher than that (as I personally like to be 100% convinced that I am correct before testifying to an opinion), but the "at least" 51% is the magic threshold. So, I suspect that if autograph experts were to be pressed in litigation, it'd boil down to the same degree of certainty. After all, it is only their opinion. It is up to the marketplace (or a jury) to determine if that opinion carries any weight.