Quote:
Originally Posted by CharleyBrown
While I agree with most of your post, I think it should be noted that the gov't giving people $600 or $1400 stimulus checks is definitely not driving the price of Jordan rookies to $700k or Kobe refractors to $500k, or even cards that are now selling in the 5 figure range.
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True. I think the stimulus plays very little part in this. I definitely agree with the basic rules of economics posted earlier though and they are absolutely in play here. My take.... modern is already starting to decline. The big money is shifting from 5-6 figure purchases on semi-unproven players and moving towards the GOATS. Hence what Jordan, Lebron, Kobe, Trout, Brady, and some others are doing. From there, it will continue to pump into safe vintage... Mays, Mantle, Ruth, Cobb, Jackie, etc... So I think vintage still has some more rising to go. It’s trickling down from 80s/90s GOATS because that’s the generation predominantly driving this bus. Those were the players they grew up with.
Now the question becomes money. Where does it all come from and how much is someone wiling to “invest”. As was said earlier, lack of trust in stock market, or asset allocation / diversify, Hedge funds, yadda yadda. More big money is coming into the industry for their portfolio. No question. I would say a large chunk of that money is from young 20-40 year olds who don’t believe in history repeating itself. They hit it big with crypto, GME, Tesla, or flipping modern over the last year. They now have no problem moving 6 figures around in baseball cards. And yes... we all have had an incredible amount of free time these days. All while not spending as much as we did pre-covid (generalizing here...). Lack of eating out, vacations, doing something other than sitting in front of a device.... Once that shifts, there will definitely be a slow down in demand. I’d almost guarantee that. The question is how long until that effects this wild market.