If you're just looking at it in financial terms, you're basically just looking at a math problem. The question is, "How much of a $ value increase, do you need to get when SGC gives this card a grade of 2 or higher, in order to break even on all the times you spend $500 and they return the card in the PSA holder.
The equation looks like this:
Break even = (% of the time SGC does not grade the card a 2 or higher)(-$500) + (% of the time SGC grades card a 2 or higher)(x)
Where x equals the value increase needed in order to break even
You can play around with the % chance that SGC gives you a 2 or higher.
In my opinion, it's next to impossible that SGC would grade this card a 2 or higher. Not impossible, but close. So for me, I would say it's about a 2% chance. Here's the math for 2%:
0 = (.98)(-500) + (.02)(x)
0 = -490 + .02x
subtract -490 from each side:
490 = .02x
divide both sides by .02
x=24,500
So at a 2% chance of receiving a 2 or higher, you'd need the vlaue increase from your PSA 1.5 to the new SGC holder to $24,500 in order to break even on the bet you're making.
If you think there's a 5% chance, you need the value increase to be $9500
At a 10% chance, you need the value increase to be $4500
Also, it's not really $500. Probably closer to $600 after you pay postage and insurance twice.
In my opinion you should keep it as is, and it's not really close.
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