Similar to a real estate or art market cycle. New money is coming in and driving up prices, they're also moving down from modern to pre-war.
I see two different buyers, guys who have retired with disposable income that are re-visiting and finishing out their collections from 30-40 years ago, and speculation buyers.
The speculators are driving the market currently since we are in the early stage of the cycle, that will change once we get into the later stage and people are priced out, disillusioned with fakes, lose interest, etc. Right now there are more buyers than sellers, the time will come when there are more sellers than buyers, always does. I remember when California Impressionist Art was at its peak, I can now buy that same painting for 1/3 of the peak. Did I like the painting at its peak? You betcha, but I couldn't afford it. It looks nice on my wall now though.
It happened 30 years ago, it'll happen again. This cycle is exacerbated by TPG's and databases that have essentially placed a stock market model on the card market. I think we'll get to the late stage fairly quickly, after all, the decision to buy a baseball card, a dividend producing stock, or income producing property should be a fairly simple one.
The long part of this cycle will be the pain of sellers who overpaid in a hot market. Example the guy still trying to sell his Conseco rookie for what he paid for it. This one will be worse and some folks will lose a lot of money.
So what to do? Build your list, stick with it and pick up what's important to you within your budget. You have six cards you want? Maybe just pick two for now. I have 12 lots picked out between Birmingham & REA that I'll make a run at, I may not get any, I'd be happy with two. Am I willing to overpay given the current market? Maybe, we'll see come auction day. If I come up empty, no big deal, I still have my health and a suitcase full of great cards in my closet.
Stay out of the speculation game, you're not the smartest guy in the room and the House always has an advantage.
Last edited by Casey2296; 11-29-2020 at 02:49 PM.
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