It sounds like you have a pretty good handle on it. Like you said, it can be harder to tell online especially with images that are intentionally meant to be deceiving in most cases.
In the first image, if you look near the top there is a upward curl that doesn't look natural. It makes the cardboard look thinner than it should be. The bright then dark corners look off too. Goudey corner wear is pretty consistent if you look at correct examples.
The third image(back) is the real smoking gun for me. The cardboard is made of a brown colored, rough textured cardboard. Those qualities are not similar to a genuine one. The edges are way too rough. The card is also way too small it seems. There is no border below "Made in USA" or if you focus on the left/right of the line on the back, it's too narrow.
The Goudey cardboard has a very distinct look that is hard to duplicate. It also has many characteristics that repeat over and over and over again. Most Goudeys end up with very similar indicators like wrinkles, corner wear, toning, etc that have a similar look for the whole set.
Good luck!
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