Quote:
Originally Posted by btcarfagno
This is a well reasoned and well researched response. That you for that.
BR has his home/road ERA splits as 0.85 vs 2.93 so I am sticking with that.
Just about every advanced metric has Marichal ahead. RA9 2.38 vs 2.41. RAopp 3.98 vs 3.99. RA9def -0.02 vs 0.30 (Koufax had a much better defense behind him that year), PPFg 102.5 vs 93 (Here is that dreaded park factor. Koufax benefitted greatly, Marichal was hurt by his), RA9avg 4.17 vs 3.49 (What an average pitcher would do against these opponents, in these parks, with these defenses...massive massive stat), RAA 58 vs 40, WAA 7.4 vs 4.9, RAR 86 vs 72, waaWL% .690 vs .613.
Marichal was better. I understand the writers wouldn't have known this back in the day. Most don't know it now. But it's simply true. Koufax had an obscene park factor in 1965 coupled with a well above average performing defense that year. Marichal had a park detriment that year and a very slightly below average performing defense behind him.
Edit: I see you meant Chance splits not Koufax. My bad. The fact that Chance played in Koufax home ballpark, however, does help to prove my point though. Thanks for that.
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But did it really? In 1961 Candlestick had a park factor of 94. The Giants played 40 years in Candlestick and it had a park factor under 100 30 of those seasons. Candlestick was always known as a pitchers park. So was Marichal really hurt or was 1965-1966 an anomaly? Those just happened to be two of the worst six seasons for pitchers in Candlestick history.
Even if you go by ERA+, Marichal is only ahead 9%.Does that really out weigh a better WHIP and FIP? 40 more innings pitched? And the real deciding factor, Koufax setting a MLB record with 382 strike outs? This is my problem with bWAR, it doesn’t add up. Even if you mainly rely on ERA+, the difference should be .5 or less. There has to be some value to pitching more innings and allowing fewer base runners. I think today, even with advanced metrics, Koufax still wins. Remember he led Marichal by 3.2 in fWAR, which is just as ridiculous as bWAR in 1965.