[HistoricNewspapers]

At age 45, Phil Niekro threw 215 innings with a 3.09 ERA. His ERA+ was 123 that season. It isn't just about value, its about ability. How many players have the ability to be a better than average MLB player after age 40??

It doesn't mean he is better than Pedro in their prime, but while Niekro was showing the ability to be successful in MLB at age 45. Pedro was no better a MLB player than either you or I at that time. Pedro's last 314 innings in MLB produced an ERA of 4.58 and ERA+ of 94. He was done being an effective MLB pitcher by age 34. No longer employable by age 37.

From age 40-48, Phil Niekro was capable of pitching 1,977 innings as MLB pitcher. His ERA+ during that time was 103, which means he was actually more effective than the average MLB pitcher during that time, and while averaging 220 innings per year in that span. Pedro Martinez was only able to throw over 220 innings in a season just two times in his career.

Yet somehow Niekro gets penalized for this ability?


Would Niekro be viewed as a better pitcher had he just stopped pitching after his first 2,216 innings...kind of like Koufax did?

After Niekro's first 2,216 innings, Niekro's ERA sat at 2.91 with a 127 ERA+. That isn't too far off from Koufax when he retired after 2,324 innings and his ERA sat at 2.76 with a 131 ERA+.

At what point does Niekro then get positive credit for being able to throw ANOTHER 3,181 innings at a rate better than a league average pitcher?? In fact, in his next 3,000+ innings, Nikero's ERA+ was 109.

For comparison, Catfish Hunter had 3,449 career innings with an ERA+ of 104(worse than Niekro's).

So in essence, Niekro had TWO careers, the first part nearly equal to Koufax's lifetime rate, and the second part better than Catfish Hunter's lifetime rate.

That's two HOF careers rolled into one for Niekro. Give Niekro his due. It doesn't make him better than Pedro in his prime...but it is an ABILITY to do what Niekro did and it provided a VALUE to MLB and the teams he played on.