Quote:
Originally Posted by frankbmd
The differentiation between absolute rarity and condition rarity is the key and well stated here.
A TPG has no control of the former and complete control of the latter, particularly at the 9-10 level.
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And that is a great summary of why this 'condition rarity' stuff, especially with anything made since 1980 that isn't a limited issue, makes little sense to me. Setting aside any unproven assertions about the submission system being rigged or biased, and assuming an honest TPG performance, given the thousands upon thousands of cards sitting in boxes raw and even unopened, holding on to these cards just seems foolhardy. I send in cards to PSA and when I get a really high grade on a mainstream modern card I sell it because I know that the 'pop' on that card is going up eventually.
As far as absolute rarities go, the pop report is an inefficient analytical tool for assessing rarity because it counts only the cards from the sponsoring TPG, does not account for resubmits, and does not present a dynamic picture of the market for the card. A far better tool is a sales scraping page, like VCP or even the free tool PSA offers for PSA card sales results. Run a search on that and see how often the given card is sold. That tells you everything you really want to know: how often it sells and where it was priced when it did sell. If the card hasn't sold in years, or has a sale or two over a period of years, you know it is rare. I did that the other day with a card I was considering selling: there hadn't been a sale in years in any condition, so I decided to hang on for the price I wanted.
I think the card manufacturers learned the lessons of junk wax quite well, which is why they focus their efforts on limited edition and/or serial numbered cards. If your card is numbered /150 you know that there aren't thousands sitting out there waiting to be graded if the card's price catches fire. Ironically, the serial numbering is also the way that some of the modern card aficionados are catching alterations. Read some of the modern card alteration threads on Blowout, really scary stuff. As bad as the TPG fake autograph thing was on here, it is dwarfed in volume and value by the alterations of low print run modern cards that are slipping past the TPGs.
Which is another issue with TPGs. The old VCBC article got it right: TPGs are smoke detectors without batteries. The amount of altered crap that makes it into holders is the crazy uncle in the cellar of this hobby: "Grandpa, did high grade T206s have narrow borders when you were a kid?" "Why no, Bobby, unless we cadged our pasteboards from American Beauty smokers."
Not to say that TPGs don't do some good, especially when it comes to making cards liquid. Most of what I sell on eBay is slabbed: it is one of the best ways of ensuring that you get exactly what you bought.
I just don't think much of this registry thing and I especially do not like how proponents of the registry treat other collectors as stupid or backwards or otherwise somehow wrong for not being interested in participating. Collecting is a hobby. A pastime. A harmless bit of fun that diverts one's attention from the harsh realities of every day life. In other words, GET A LIFE! I mean, it's just baseball cards dammit, IT'S JUST BASEBALL CARDS!
That was, of course, a re-creation of the evil Captain Kirk from episode 5,
The Enemy Within.