Quote:
Originally Posted by jason.1969
"What this means is that if someone is able to make a good estimate of the actual numbers for a particular vintage card today (and we DO sometimes see these), a patient and creative person could extrapolate from such data and original production numbers to arrive at a reasonably sound estimate for the surviving numbers of some other card of interest."
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wouldn't a much more accurate estimate of surviving population from mainstream sets come from looking at the encapsulated totals and making reasonable estimates on cross-over population and raw population from surveys?
there's a huge amount of variance in the presumptions you are making about the size of the original manufacturing run. to start, we don't know whether the revenue figures you cited are based on sell in or sell through from the retail stores. we don't know if they are based on wholesale or retail prices. we don't know how much excess inventory was manufactured, etc.
regardless, i now understand the point of your post is not to insinuate there are tons of goudey ruths lying around undiscovered but to give an extremely rough estimate of what might have been manufactured based on extrapolating one line from a historical document.