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Net54baseball.com Forums - View Single Post - 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 3 Available in Complete 1952 Topps Set Break at National
Thread: 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 3 Available in Complete 1952 Topps Set Break at National
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  #103  
Old 11-23-2016, 06:24 PM
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pokerplyr80 pokerplyr80 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Exhibitman View Post
I don't see the attraction to these set breaks; though I did take a chance on the Kreindler painting lotto thing because I really admire his work and would have had a hell of a Joe Louis piece if I'd won. Regardless of the legal technicalities, it is definitely gambling and I don't really like it as part of the hobby.

Is a 1/407 chance at the Mantle worth a $350 fee? Not to me and not to most anyone else, apparently. The way I look at it (which is probably 100% wrong from a statistical analysis but WTF do I know) is that 1/407 = .2457% chance of winning the Mantle. .2457% = 0.002457 x $23,000 = $56.11. That's what I'd pay for the chance. Since there are some other good cards too, I might kick it up to $100 or so in case I get one of the great high # HOFers instead. But $350 doesn't feel realistic.
Thats why it didn't sell. I would easily spend 350 on a break like this, or more, if the potential payout was there. To justify collecting 140k, there should have been 110-120k worth of cards in the break.
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