Hi Tony. Thanks for responding. You've gotten some excellent responses.
I guess I take a contrarian view of the combined PSA / SGC population reports. Though you must factor in the possibility of cards being cracked out and resubmitted, I believe those pop reports to be a very useful tool to guage rarity, scarcity, and trends, to some extent.
There are reasons why some commons are less plentiful than the stars. Why bother the hassle and expense of grading a common? For someone who is wanting the card for PSA's Set Registry. More collectors collect particular players than trying to assemble an entire set, because completing a set is much more expensive and time-consuming. Some have found it's not that fulfilling in the end to have pursued "a 598-card Topps set", so they choose their favorite player, or players, or an entire team. Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, and Reds are probably collected more than the old Kansas City A's, Washington Senators, or Cleveland Indians.
I come back to the sheer cost of grading, as well as the frustration and bother of doing so. However, graded cards are where the money is, period. As JustinD alluded to, when a card is cracked out of a holder, in the hopes of being resubmitted to get a better graded, hardly anyone bothers to later send back in to PSA the old plastic cert of the first grade. It's not really that the collector or dealer is lazy, they just don't want to pay more money and time to mail them back to PSA. It somewhat screws up the population report, but they don't care about that. They should, but that's their human nature.
It wasn't until the mid-70s that the USA became "collecting conscious", and began to save EVERYTHING that might become valuable one day. Moms stopped throwing out their son's card collection; from the mid-70s Moms were extra careful to save the collection--and any other collectibles. That's why so much from the last 40 years is plentiful. Another reason those cards are plentiful was because the adult hobby of card collecting began in earnest in 1969, and by the mid-70s had grown exponentially each year. The card companies got the hint and began producing more, and more, and more.
Factor in the invention of hard plastic sheets and cardboard boxes made to hold 800 cards that came to pass in the 1980s, and then the larger boxes to hold 3200 cards. The larger boxes subtly fostered the notion to buy more and more cards. The storage sheets was a way to preserve one's cards. Then came the hard screwdown plastic holders.
Etc.
For cards of the 40s and 50s, such as you love, it comes down to whether or not "finds" of unsold product were uncovered. I bring "finds" of that nature out because those became the source of soon-to-be PSA 8s, 9s, and 10s. "Finds" have involved pre-war and post-war cards, mainstream, nationwide food issues, and even rare regionals.
Let's look at that '53 Topps Willy Miranda. Let's say it really was a legitimate sport print. Just as an example, mind you. If knowledge of that became known, certain collectors who gravitate toward scarce cards would want that Miranda. I remember a collector wanting Miranda cards because Willy was from Cuba, as he was. Many collectors would still only want the card if they were trying to complete the '53 Topps set. Most other guys would not care, since Miranda was a common player, and collecting the '53 set is now too expensive, either raw or especially in high-graded form.
Lots of thoughts, Tony, and so my verbose answer is to say there are a lot of mitigating factors that say, "it depends". The old "it depends on the supply and demand" factor is always relevant.
Best regards, Tony. With the pop reports, at least we've an idea of the "supply" in the equation. As for demand, if YOU want cards from a given set, YOU'RE somebody; go for it! Just research it to have a good idea that when you want to sell it, you'll at least get your money back. The old "finds" are very rare today, where pre-'71 is concerned.
Time to quit and be with my family. Regards, Brian Powell
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