[ls7plus]

Bob, I can only tell you that Leon, with the depth and wide diversity of his contacts within the hobby, as well as the numerous posts from knowledgeable collectors expressing shock and amazement at the rate at which key cards are increasing in value over the past MONTHS, has led me to retreat from my former rather ignorant stance that the purchasers of these key cards at enormous prices were true collectors, rather than investors. I am a devout student of collectibles, acquiring as much information as I can and analyzing it, which is essentially exactly what I do in my appellate law practice. That study, carried out over the course of the last few decades, leads me inevitably to the conclusion that collectibles do not increase as rapidly in value as key cards from the '50's and '60's have been when the demand is originating from true collectors who know the field, rather than investors, who may have some knowledge, but not nearly enough, and are not in it for the long term.

I made reference to the current market for such cards resembling a Ponzi scheme in another post: when the market is comprised primarily of investors selling to other investors, with higher prices at every stage, the market can be sustained only as long as new investors are coming on the scene. That is the very heart of a speculative boom. When those new investors fail to appear to purchase the cards at greatly inflated values (i.e., substantially more than any true collector would pay), the bottom drops out of the market as it mathematically must--value is proportional to demand divided by supply. If the value is set by investors who have entirely or largely departed the scene, the value of the item will fall to the level of that which a true collector would pay for it. If indeed this is such a speculative boom, as I now have come to accept (Leon and the other long term collectors on the board can be quite persuasive, and I try to always be open to reason), then no other result is even possible.

As to how long such a speculative boom lasts, it has usually been no more than several years duration in coins, and perhaps a bit longer than that in car collecting. The Koufax rookie, if we are indeed in the midst of such an unstable, unsustainable boom, will fall back in value, but how much it will fall or when would be anyone's guess.

May you profit from your purchases,

Larry

PS: my post began before the original poster made his request to limit comments.