Quote:
Originally Posted by tedzan
I very seldom differ with Scot; however, in this case I have to question his " 370 million T206's " estimate. I consider this estimate to be way too high for two reasons.
1st....If I recall correctly, about 9 years ago we arrived at T206 survivability number of 1.5 - 2 Million T206's currently in circulation. Assuming 370 Million is valid, that
translates into a "survivability factor" of approx. 0.5 %. Sorry guys, something doesn't jive here.....this factor is way too low.
2nd....What I think Scot has not accounted for in his estimate are the various Non-Sports issues (circa 1909 - 1911). Off the top of my mind I can name the T42 (Birds)
issue, T58 (Fish) issue, T59 (Flags) issue, etc. These insert cards were printed with American Beauty, Cycle, Old Mill, Piedmont, Sovereign, Sweet Cap advertising backs.
And, judging by the large numbers of them that have survived, ALC must have printed them in the many of Millions.
Furthermore, in January 1911 ALC started producing their Gold-Bordered issues with the T80 Military Series cards that had T206-type backs (Lenox, Old Mill, Tolstoi and
Uzit). And, judging from the present day availability of the T80's, ALC must have printed them in the many of Millions.
My point here is obvious, when you account for all the various insert card issues during the 1909-1911 timeline, there is really no accurate way of determining how many
T206's were originally printed and issued during this 2-year period.
TED Z
.
|
I posted copies of the pages where Scot discusses the possible print numbers
and survival % here is a breakdown of his reasoning.
1 T206 cards were distributed as a premium rather than a primary product. Most early 1900s cigarette purchasers were probably more interested
in a smoke than a small cardboard insert depicting a baseball player. Millions of
T206 cards may have been discarded without so much as an initial viewing.
2 T206 cards were distributed mainly to an adult population. Most adults are less interested in saving novelty items than kids.
3 Baseball cards had little economic value at the time. There was little financial incentive to keep them.
Plus these obstacles of survival over the past 100+ years. Several generations
of T206 owners, countless moves, harsh storage conditions and world war II paper drives.
He does take into account for the birds, fish ect... by stating the 370 million estimate may be considerably lower based on the reports that they may have
been inserted in packs in 1910-11.
I think the T206 numbers would still be well over 100 million, but either way whether they were birds ,fish, military men or flags they were still printed by the ALC in the 1909-11 time frame.