Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
I absolutely agree, I think it's highly likely he continues on course and he certainly seems to be stable personally. My only point has been that sh*t happens and that things can fall apart for guys who look like locks.
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Ain't that the truth, unfortunately?
I've always wondered what would have happened to the Houston Astros if J.R. Richard hadn't had that blood clot. How great could their starters have been in 1981? The Braves rotation of the early to late 90s is often mentioned as the best in the modern era-in 1993 they had Tom Glavine (22-6), Greg Maddux (20-10), Steve Avery (18-6), and John Smoltz (15-11), and in 1998 they had Glavine (20-6), Maddux (18-9), Smoltz (17-3), Kevin Milwood (17-8) and Denny Neagle (16-11). Of course, the 1971 Baltimore Orioles had four 20 game winners in Dave McNally (21-5), Pat Dobson (20-8), Mike Cuellar (20-9) and Hall of Famer Jim Palmer (20-9).
But look at what the Astros could have put out there in the mid 80s.
In 1980, J.R. Richard started 17 games before collapsing during a pre game warm up. That stroke ended his career. He'd been 10-4 with a 1.90 ERA, 119 K's in 113 IP, and a 174 ERA +. His WHIP was a career-best 0.924. He'd gone 36-24 with a 2.90 ERA and 616 K's the prior two seasons. He was clearly one of the most dominant pitchers in the game, and was only 30. And, to that point, he'd only pitched 1,600 career innings. He hadn't worked over 100 innings in a season until 1975, when he first went over 200 IP. The Astros also still had Nolan Ryan, who would have a spectacular 1981 strike-shortened season. He was 11-5 with a league-leading 1.69 ERA, 140 K's in 149 IP, and an amazing 2 home runs allowed. His ERA + was a whopping 195, the best of his Hall of Fame career. The Astros also had Joe Niekro, who was 4th in the National League Cy Young Award for the 1980 season. He was 20-12 with a 3.55 ERA, and 127 K's. In 1981, he was only 9-9, but he had a 2.82 ERA, and a 1.187 WHIP, which is very good. In 1982, he would go 17-12 with a 2.47 ERA, and a 1.067 WHIP. Niekro would remain in Houston until late 1985, when he went to the Yankees.
But what if Richard's career had continued? The Astros would feature Richard, Ryan, Niekro...and in 1983, they would be joined by Mike Scott. Scott, of course, won the Cy Young in 1986 for the Astros, going 18-10 with a 2.22 ERA, and 306 K's. Nolan Ryan, the ageless wonder, was still a great pitcher. In 1986, he struck out 194 batters. The next four seasons, he would lead the league in K's, with 270 and 228 in 1987 and 1988 with the Astros, and 301 and 232 in 1989 and 1990 with the Rangers. In 1986, the Astros would have featured three pitchers who'd thrown over 300 strike outs in a season as their top 3, Bob Knepper, who won 17 games in 1986 as their #4, and Jim Deshaies as their #5. Deshaies went 12-5 with a 3.25 ERA that year.
The Astros went 96-66 in 1986 without Richard. The Astros lost to the eventual World Champions, the New York Mets, in the NLCS. The Mets won 108 games that year. Could Richard have made the difference?