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Old 04-07-2015, 10:25 AM
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Jason A. Schwartz
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Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Chicago suburbs
Posts: 1,925
Default A quirk of OPS...

Recalling the coach's refrain from Little League, is a walk as good as a hit?

Here is what OPS has to say in some simple situations involving two plate appearances...

Here, a walk is worse than a hit.
Out + BB = .500 OPS
Out + 1B = 1.000 OPS

Here, a walk is as good as a hit.
BB + 1B = 2.000 OPS
1B + 1B = 2.000 OPS

And here, a walk is better than a hit!
BB + 2B = 3.000 OPS
1B + 2B = 2.500 OPS

Admittedly, a situation like the last one is extremely unlikely over a full season. Still, I thought it was an interesting example of a widely used analytic supporting a conclusion that's obviously wrong.
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