I don't want to turn your thread into a 'TPA bashing' thread; however, I don't include JSA or PSA (or SGC now) authentication in my decision process. If the autograph is good, and I think I might re-sell it, then such add-ons go into pricing, and I don't throw away COA's.
Applying the above: Just out of curiosity, how do you feel about someone saying: "I feel 90% certain that this autograph is real, therefore I think the 50% discount price is fair." I use '90%' in my example, but I could have used a much lower confidence % for some collectors (see the recent Mantle thread).
After you've made your decision about the previous example, let's say the top two TPA's are right about 90% of the Ruths they have authenticated. I personally think the number is lower, but you could even go with 95%. If you then assume a Ruth signature you want to purchase is real because one of the top TPA's says it is, and you aren't very knowledgeable, you run the risk of buying one from the 5-10% group of fails. Is it worth it? Would you pay 50% less for a car that doesn't start 5-10% of the time? Buy hamburger for 50% off that has a 5-10% chance of cooking up to taste horrible?
I really believe that you can learn enough to only buy Ruth autographs that fall in the 90% area. As Mark said, you won't get them for even 20% off.
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