Quote:
Originally Posted by Pickles
BTW Mark (Lordstan)
An 1nteresting side note, let's keep it simple:
You have a Ruth auto (paper) which, if authentic is worth >$10K (eBay numbers)
If not authentic is worth #0.02
It can be bought for $2000
You consult 2 of your most trusted experts, call them Peter and Joseph. One says is authentic, one says is not. You also believe it is authentic. So it is 2:1
Do you pull the trigger at $2,000, (20% of BV) or do you have to be above a specific threshold (say 9 out of 10 experts) to get there????
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I will answer both of your posts in one.
The detail you added about confidence level in the sig is very important, as you are correct that that is variable. I will say that I think many people see the decision in a more binary fashion. If they feel, based upon whatever evidence they have, that a sig is good, they will pay whatever they are willing to pay. If they feel it isn't good, they will pay nothing.
To simplify, in order to keep your price low, you would rather accept a lower quality item. Sounds very reasonable.
Regarding your example above, first, the going rate of a decent Ruth cut is around $3k ish(10K prices are only seen in the ebay museums). Second, If a listing has a BIN that is that low, say 20% of value, for something as liquid as a Babe Ruth auto, it automatically sets off warning bells. Doesn't mean it doesn't happen, because it does, but it raises my level of skeptcism. Suppose the auto looks good, but it is a copy? I've seen that done. Now that I think about it, having a price too low
might make me not buy something regardless of the form of the auto or opinion of others, because I am worried about what is not being revealed.
There is no magic number for how many experts think something is good or bad, especially when none of the people whose opinions your getting have actually seen the item in person.
My absolute answer to the above scenario is that it would depend on many factors. What are the specifics of the item? Is it something I need to complete a set? Why do I feel it's good vs why does the one buddy think it's bad? How much money do I have available? Is there anything else up for sale at the same time that I want more? Am I looking to keep it or flip it? This is a really important question as I am much more willing to accept something not perfect if I am going to keep it. If I am reselling, I want as perfect as possible to reduce the likelihood of problems or returns down the line.
Good discussion. Welcome to the board.
Mark