Quote:
Originally Posted by Runscott
Gary, I've said it before but I think you missed it: the statement that 500 HR's is a lock for the HOF is FAILED LOGIC. '500 HRs' is not why these guys got into the HOF - it is only part of it. The guys with 500 HR's did a lot more than just hit 500 HR's. Adam Dunn has done a lot less.
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I agree that 500 is not a lock. Adam Dunn is a liability to a team and should hold the record for the worst season in 2011 (but the manager played the stats game and kept him out of 6 extra at bats to make sure it didn't go down as a full season).
Quote:
Originally Posted by packs
I still believe that 500 homers is the magic number and should be a lock. The only players to eclipse that mark and not be voted in are suspected or admitted cheaters. If you have to cheat to accomplish a feat like 500 homers, then that must mean there is some significance to the accomplishment.
Craig Biggio reached 3,000 hits without ever being a great player. No MVP awards, though he did receive votes. Since he didn't make it, is the new number 3,500 hits? 3,250?
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Craig Biggio contributed a lot more to his team than Dunn did. Biggio's RAA (runs above average) is 306, with 257 coming from batting. Dunn's RAA is -82, he even has a worse number with batting than Biggio at 217.
The HOF should be smarter than looking at one stat, and they have been. No one has gotten in as a player with a negative RAA that I have seen (I could have missed someone EDIT - I looked through every HOF and there is one with a negative RAA: Lloyd Waner had a -4).
Here is a list of everyone with more career home runs than Dunn and their RAA. The lowest is 136 with Canseco. The lowest HOFer is 213 with Winfield.
| RAA | | # HR |
|---|
| 1243 | Barry*Bonds*(22) | 762 |
| 862 | Hank*Aaron+*(23) | 755 |
| 1327 | Babe*Ruth+*(22) | 714 |
| 1041 | Willie*Mays+*(22) | 660 |
| 796 | Alex*Rodriguez*(20, 38) | 654 |
| 482 | Ken*Griffey*(22) | 630 |
| 383 | Jim*Thome*(22) | 612 |
| 301 | Sammy*Sosa*(18) | 609 |
| 613 | Frank*Robinson+*(21) | 586 |
| 379 | Mark*McGwire*(16) | 583 |
| 280 | Harmon*Killebrew+*(22) | 573 |
| 291 | Rafael*Palmeiro*(20) | 569 |
| 313 | Reggie*Jackson+*(21) | 563 |
| 363 | Manny*Ramirez*(19, 42) | 555 |
| 681 | Mike*Schmidt+*(18) | 548 |
| 788 | Mickey*Mantle+*(18) | 536 |
| 695 | Jimmie*Foxx+*(20) | 534 |
| 274 | Willie*McCovey+*(22) | 521 |
| 393 | Frank*Thomas+*(19) | 521 |
| 949 | Ted*Williams+*(19) | 521 |
| 692 | Albert*Pujols*(14, 34) | 518 |
| 284 | Ernie*Banks+*(19) | 512 |
| 578 | Eddie*Mathews+*(17) | 512 |
| 719 | Mel*Ott+*(22) | 511 |
| 270 | Gary*Sheffield*(22) | 509 |
| 242 | Eddie*Murray+*(21) | 504 |
| 862 | Lou*Gehrig+*(17) | 493 |
| 188 | Fred*McGriff*(19) | 493 |
| 809 | Stan*Musial+*(22) | 475 |
| 239 | Willie*Stargell+*(21) | 475 |
| 157 | Carlos*Delgado*(17) | 473 |
| 562 | Chipper*Jones*(19) | 468 |
| 213 | Dave*Winfield+*(22) | 465 |
| 152 | David*Ortiz*(18, 38) | 463 |
| 136 | Jose*Canseco*(17) | 462 |
| -82 | Adam*Dunn*(14, 34) | 462 |