Quote:
Originally Posted by jhs5120
To be completely honest with you; all of this is very well done, but I have a few points to add.
Derek Jeter's defense is considered well below average from a WAR point of view and he has a career defensive WAR of -9.5. I believe it has to do with his range. I have no idea how defensive WAR is calculated, but from what Bill James has explained, basically Jeter's range blows and when it is compared to other shortstops (who are among the best fielders), it hurts Jeter's WAR.
Since the only stats either of us are throwing out are offensive, let's look at offensive WAR:
Jeter's oWAR: 95.8 (20th all time)
Griffey's oWAR: 83.8 (27th all time)
Jeter's Seven Peak Years:
1999: 9.0
1998: 7.3
2006: 7.1
2001: 6.7
2000: 6.6
2005: 6.5
2007: 6.2
Total: 49.4
Ken Griffey Jr's Seven Peak Years:
1993: 8.1
1997: 7.6
1998: 6.9
1996: 6.6
1991: 6.4
1992: 6.2
1999: 6.2
Total: 48
So if you compare their best years:
(Jeter : Griffey)
9.0 : 8.1
7.3 : 7.6
7.1 : 6.9
6.7 : 6.6
6.6 : 6.4
6.5 : 6.2
6.2 : 6.2
There oRAR (offensive runs above replacement level) show the same story too. Here are there seven year peaks:
Jeter: 520
Griffey: 498
Basically, Jeter's was a (marginally) more productive offensive player, both throughout his career and when you compare their peak years. One hit home runs and one hit a crap ton of singles and stole bases. In the end, their offensive production equaled out to be virtually the same!
Jeter led the league in oWAR twice, and was top 5 seven times.
Griffey led the league in oWAR twice, and was top 5 five times.
When you factor in defense, it'll show Griffey to be a better player because he was a better defensive outfielder than Jeter was a defensive shortstop, but everything points to Jeter as the better offensive player.
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You will never convince me that a guy that hits a bunch of singles is better than one of the best home run hitters in baseball history. Why? Again, and I have to keep mentioning this. Griffey Jr was hurt for almost the entire second half of his career. That is why the numbers are close. I give Jeter credit for staying healthy, especially playing shortstop, but at his best, Ken Griffey Jr blows Jeter out of the water.
OPS is the be all, end all of offensive metrics, if you ask me. The game of baseball is about scoring runs. To score runs, and win, people need to get on base, and there needs to be power to score runs. OPS is power + on base percentage. OPS + is a combination of those two things adjusted for the parks the player played in.
The very highest OPS + Jeter has ever had was a 153 in 1999. He was tremendous. He hit .349 with 24 home run (career high), 219 hits, 37 doubles, 9 triples, 19 stolen bases. He scored 134 runs, and for the only time in his career, eclipsed 100 RBI (102).
Ken Griffey's best OPS + was in 1993, 171. He matched that again in 1994. If you look at his highest OPS + seasons, he has 5 seasons above 153. Jeter's second best OPS + is 132 in 2006, the season everybody seems all hot and bothered about him getting cheated out of the MVP. Ken Griffey Jr had 12 seasons that were better than Derek Jeter's second best season.
You looked at 162 game averages. Well, on a 162 game basis, Jeter's average OPS + is 116. Griffey Jr's is 136.
I ran a report on Baseball Reference for career OPS +. The only parameter I included was careers with over 7,500 at bats. 182 batters between the years 1901-2014 had 7,500 at bats. Ken Griffey Jr's 136 OPS + was 34th highest of all-time. That is his composite, the healthy years and the years with injuries all rolled into one. Derek Jeter's 116 OPS + is 100th on this list. And that seems about right for Jeter. Barry Larkin, who was a comparable player, has the same 116 OPS +. Robin Yount is at 115. Ken Griffey Jr is sandwiched between George Brett, Reggie Jackson, Gary Sheffield, Vlad Guerrero, Al Kaline and Fred McGriff. Steve Garvey, Lou Whitaker, Adrian Beltre, Gary Carter and Ryne Sandberg surround Jeter.
Just for giggles, I reran the test again, lowering the at bats requirement to 5,000, and had the list run for the first ten seasons of a player's career. In other words, when Griffey was actually healthy. Of course, Jeter was also in his first ten seasons. Ten years in, Jeter was a .315 hitter with an .848 OPS, and a 120 OPS +. So, his numbers are a little higher, but not remarkably so.
But look at Griffey Jr. When he is healthy, there is no comparison between him and Jeter. None. On a list of 173 hitters who had at least 5,000 at bats in their first ten seasons, Jeter is 68th. Certainly an improvement. But Griffey Jr jumps all the way up to 13th. The only hitters who had a higher OPS + in the first ten years of their career: Ted Williams, Albert Pujols, Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Johnny Mize, Jeff Bagwell, Henry Aaron, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Joe DiMaggio, Ed Matthews and Miguel Cabrera. Griffey is ahead of Frank Robinson, Ralph Kiner, Chuck Klein, and Al Simmons.
Before the injuries set in and slowed Griffey down, there was absolutely no comparison offensively between Ken Griffey Jr and Derek Jeter. Griffey Jr's 150 OPS + is superstar level.
To put this another way...Derek Jeter's best ever single season OPS + is 153, again in 1999. For the first ten seasons of his career, Griffey's OPS + was 150. For a decade, Griffey Jr's play was at the same level of Jeter's best ever season.
One last thing. 356 stolen bases in 20 years, and 2,707 games hardly qualifies as a crap ton. When you are 170th on the all-time stolen base list, you haven't stolen a crap ton of bases.
