[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He was doing that before 86 too. To me, Rice is one step below a HOFer, in the Don Mattingly class of a stretch of outstanding seasons but not quite there career-wise.

I always enjoy friendly debates about baseball with people whom I have a great deal of respect for. And I don't expect to change your mind, Peter. But I have to take you to task here, nonetheless.

I am not a Yankee fan by any stretch of the imagination, though I have liked several of their players quite a lot, Mattingly being high on that list. Had he not developed back problems so early on in his career, I think there's no question he was headed for Cooperstown. To look at his four year peak, and consider those numbers in the context of the era he played in--he was just an offensive juggernaut.



His 162 game averages are just mind numbing: 108 runs, 222 hits, 49 doubles, 32 HR, 128 RBI, 369 TB. 155 OPS + .381/.560/.941. Most impressive of all, however, has to be his 39 strikeouts per 658 ABs. In the modern era of baseball, that's almost unheard of for a man that hits 30 + home runs a season.

We agree that he was a great player, but he did not maintain that level long enough to warrant inclusion in Cooperstown.

Compare his four year run to the stretch Jim Rice put together.

Jim Rice was a full-time player in his second season, 1975. He remained pretty much a full-time player until 1986, a run of 12 years, playing in a total of 1,766 of the 1,883 games Boston played in (94%).

During that 12 year run, there were 104 other hitters in the Major Leagues that played in at least 1,203 games. So I am going to use 1,200 games played by all position players as my base.

How did Rice do when compared to the other 103 hitters in this group? Jim Rice had more hits than anybody in baseball this 12 year stretch. More than Steve Garvey, Cecil Cooper, George Brett, Pete Rose, or Robin Yount.



Home runs? Only Mike Schmidt and Dave Kingman had more in all the Majors.



RBI? Nobody in the Majors had more RBI than Rice.



Batting average? Even with all that power, Rice had the 5th highest average overall.



He also led all Major League hitters in total bases and was second in slugging percentage (thanks, Andy, for pointing out my error. Schmidt's SLG was .025 higher).



I don't think it's a stretch to say that for a twelve year period, Jim Rice was the dominant offensive force in baseball. He had more hits, drove in more runs, had more total bases and a higher slugging percentage than any player but Schmidt. He was third in home runs, and fifth in average.

Peter, if I told you a player hit .304 with 33 HR and 118 RBI in any one of those seasons, you'd tell me he was an MVP candidate, if not the MVP of the league.

That was Jim Rice's 162 game average for those twelve years. For his sixteen year career, his 162 game averages: .298 AVG, 30 HR, 113 RBI.

He might have only won one MVP award, but he had five other top five finishes: he was second in the AL Rookie of the Year and third in the MVP his rookie year. He was 4th in the MVP vote in 1977. He won it in 1978. He was 5th in the MVP in 1979. He was 4th in the MVP vote in 1983, and 3rd in 1986.

And going back to that 4 year peak of Mattingly's? Compare those peak averages against Jim Rice's 162 game averages from 1975-1986:

Mattingly 1984-1987: 108 runs, 222 hits, 32 HR, 128 RBI, .337 AVG
Rice 1975-1986: 102 runs, 198 hits, 33 HR, 118 RBI, .304 AVG

Mattingly had a better average, but the other numbers are pretty close.

One more thing to consider. Between 1970 and 1990, he was fifth in the Major Leagues in home runs, though he was only 27th in games played during that span.

I think Jim Rice's career credentials are more impressive than those put up by Don Mattingly, and he is clearly deserving of being in the Hall of Fame, in my opinion.

Originally Posted by 7nohitter

Bill,
Good info! No doubt Rice was a force, for a period of time...I think ultimately he ended up hanging on too long and doing damage to his overall numbers...I'm also tainted as '86 was the year I really started watching baseball and from '86-'89 I swear all Rice did was ground into inning-ending double plays!

Thanks, Andrew! I don't know if he hung on any longer than any of the other players in the Hall of Fame. Maybe they all held on a bit too long, lol. Some players have off years (or a few off years), and rebound. More often than not, at the end, however, it's hard for these guys to let go. The adulation, the adrenaline that comes with playing in front of 30,000, and the camaraderie in the clubhouse..I imagine that would be hard to say goodbye to.

Jim Rice last played in 1989, 56 games only at age 36. As recently as 1986, he was a .324 hitter with 200 hits, 20 HR and 110 RBI, and as I mentioned, 3rd in the AL MVP. Compare that to somebody like Pete Rose, who was a .261 hitter his last five seasons. He only continued playing to break Ty Cobb's hits record when conventional wisdom dictated he probably should have stopped playing much sooner. His career average dropped from .310 to .305 because of vanity. Still, a great player that deserves to be in Cooperstown, imo. I think whatever rules he broke in betting on baseball, he's paid his dues. Let the people of Cincinnati have their moment cheering Pete on as he enters the hall.

Mickey Mantle was another guy that held on too long. As of 1964, he was a career .309 hitter with 464 home runs. The last four seasons, he was a .252 hitter. He got his 500th home run, but his career average dropped to .298, which forever gnawed at the great Mick. If he had not played that last season, he'd have been a .302 hitter with 518 HR.

There are certainly other players that held on too long, and they are not at all confined to Major League Baseball. I don't know, however, if Rice really damaged his reputation, or his career numbers, by playing those last few years. They certainly didn't raise his chances of making it into Cooperstown, as he didn't cross some magic threshold like 3,000 hits. But I guess it depends on who you ask. Red Sox fans may be a little less forgiving than the average baseball fan. Maybe you saw him killing a few too many rallies, and were ready to move on. Either way, it sure makes for good conversation!