I would give Pettite a 35 - 40% chance. And that's across his entire term of eligibility. Post-season achievements and playing most years in NY helps - PED factor hurts...
Maybe the passage of time will soften things, and his honest admission will be well-embraced, as opposed to most others' elusiveness, lying and deception (McGwire/Bonds/Clemens/Palmeiro/Sosa/A-Rod).
But if you are asking about first-ballot, I would say less than a 5% chance.
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