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Originally Posted by Beatles Guy
Nice work sir. Do you think that being overshadowed by Bench in the 70's hurt his chances?
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Thanks
It's certainly possible that Bench hurt his chances, but I don't think it's likely. It's difficult to extrapolate why Simmons was shunned by the voters without knowing who the voters were, and what biases they may have had. Bench was part of that Big Red Machine in Cincinnati that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He was an elite player defensively, winning ten gold gloves, and offensively he was without peer. By the time he was thirty, he'd led the National League in home runs twice, RBIs three times, and had amassed over 300 home runs, and 1,100 RBIs. He was also a two-time NL MVP. That's why I feel that the other great catchers of this era should be compared against each other. Bench was on a level of his own.
When you look at the next tier of catchers in the 70s, the disparity between their initial Hall of Fame votes is puzzling.
Gary Carter received 42.3% of the vote, or 200 votes, his first year of eligibility in 1998. He was elected in 2003, his sixth year of eligibility.
Carlton Fisk received 66.4% of the vote, or 330 votes, his first year of eligibility in 1999. He was elected in 2000, the next year.
Thurman Munson received 15.5% of the vote, or 62 votes, his first year of eligibility in 1981. He remained on the ballot for 15 season, but never again attained over 10% of the vote. Is it possible, even likely that he gained additional votes his first year because he died tragically in a plane crash? Yes. While Munson was a very good player, and for a short time a great player, there's no way that I would consider him more worthy of a Hall nod than Simmons.
Ted Simmons only received 3.7% of the vote, or 17 votes, in his first year of eligibility in 1994. That eliminated him from further consideration by the BBWAA.
Bill James' Hall of Fame monitor (HOFm) attempts to quantify a player's likelihood of being elected into Cooperstown. A score of over 100 means a player is a
likely inductee.
Ted Simmons HOFm was 124, which well exceeded the threshold for Hall worthiness in James' estimation.
Even if you look at the initial HOFm of Simmons' peers, there wasn't a disparity that would shed light on why they were elected (or in Munson's case, remained on the ballot for 15 seasons), and Simmons was not.
Gary Carter's HOFm in 1998: 135
Carlton Fisk's HOFm in 1999: 120
Thurman Munson's HOFm in 1981: 90
Ted Simmons HOFm in 1994: again, 124
Now, the HOFm metric, like WAR, is far from perfect. It considers a number of factors. But it is puzzling that, based on the merits this metric considers, only Gary Carter was considered more "worthy" of Hall induction than Simmons, yet Carter, Fisk and even Munson all received substantially more votes.
When one again compares their career numbers, and their per 162 game averages, there is nothing that suggests Simmons would be a less deserving member of the Hall:
I cannot logically come to any conclusion as to why Ted Simmons did not at least gain enough votes to remain on the ballot beyond his first year of eligibility.
Consider, also, some of the players who also appeared on the 1994 ballot, and were later elected to the Hall: Tony Perez (HOFm score of 81), Ron Santo (HOFm of 88), Bruce Sutter (HOFm of 91), and Joe Torre (HOFm of 96). Orlando Cepeda's HOFm score of 130 was close to Simmons', and eventually he was voted in by the Veteran's Committee in 1999 after falling 7 votes short in 1994, his final year of eligibility. Santo, too, was elected by the Veteran's Committee, while Perez and Sutter were elected by the BBWAA.
Will Simmons ever receive the consideration he is due by the Veteran's Committee? Or will they look at the era, and decide that three catchers being inducted was enough?
In his prime, from 1971 to 1980, Simmons averaged 19 home runs and 100 RBI, along with a .301 AVG and an .834 OPS per 162 games played. He also provided solid, if unspectacular defense. If you told me that a catcher for nearly a decade provided 100 RBI and a .300 AVG every season, I'd say that was definitely Hall worthy. We will see if the Veteran's Committee agrees.