I have a different approach than most people.
I'm more of an opportunist collector than set or player collector.
What I look for is a card that's a good value at the time I'm looking.
My Group of T206s has some nice ones, and a lot of them that are not so good. Currently I look for ones that are ungraded but that I think have a good chance of being a 50. if I can get a good looking card with minimal corner wear for a bit less than a graded 50 that's great.
I also look for cards with something that's interesting to me, like print errors or some small difference. T206 has a lot of these.
I haven't always done things this way, for a time I bought based on quantity. So I'd buy maybe 2-3 cards in G instead of one that was EX. Great for the budget, but not for display. But I still buy low grade cards if they're a good deal.
I've never worried much about uniformity. I like to have some really nice cards, but for some cards that's totally unrealistic. So I'm happy with the Cobbs I have that are P-F, and happy with commons I bought in the 80's that got really good grades. I wouldn't pass up a good deal in my price range just because the card is nicer than the rest, I also wouldn't pass up a good deal on an expensive card because it was a bit more worn.
When you ask about long term value increase - That depends on your idea of long term. If you want to finish the set and sell it in say 2-3 years, stick with graded around a 50/4 and go for HOF players first.
If long term means a few decades, get whatever looks nice to you. (Do backs matter to you? If not there are some very nice looking 10s and 20's with back damage.) I bought my first in I think 1978. 25 cents, HOF and less common back too. Also horrible condition. At the time VG commons were around 1.50 and most HOF players were $10 or less. Prices tended to increase in steps, next was commons at $3, then 9 then 15. I went through periods of denial about the increases. $9 ! that should only be $3-4!
So over a long time even commons won't do so badly, especially nicer ones.
The best approach is to take each individual card and ask
"do I like it"
"Do I like it $X worth"
"Do I like it MORE than another similar card for the same price?"
"Do I like it enough to pay over the current price for the grade?"
If the answer the any of the first three is no, it's not the card to buy.
If the answer to the last question is yes, just buy it and don't worry about price.
I read an article recently about a stamp collection where the collector bought items only if they "spoke to him" - The result is simply spectacular.
I'm guessing John has a similar approach, with similarly spectacular results.
Steve B
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