Taking just one point--I am skeptical that there really are zillions of valuable ungraded cards out there, which is often stated as a given. So many years have now passed since grading exploded and also prices, that the vast majority of those even marginally engaged with this hobby have graded these cards. And those who crack a holder don't factor in as much as you say because that card is still counted in the pop reports. It was a "5" and probably still is a "5" if someone gets it graded again.
In other words, the pop reports are definitely incomplete but I think they are closer to reality than many claim--except for those many cards graded years ago without keeping track of the backs.
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