According to Baseball Reference.com, here are the top 10 players with the most Hits including and after the age of 40. The last number is Plate Appearances.
1. Cap Anson 823 2992
2. Pete Rose 699 2955
3. Sam Rice 551 1906
4. Luke Appling 488 1930
5. Honus Wagner 479 1989
6. Carlton Fisk 473 2011
7. Jim O'Rourke 458 1678
8. Dave Winfield 413 1722
9. Carl Yastrzemski 410 1762
10. Julio Franco 409 1619
The average for this group is 520 Hits. However, since only three of the 10 had over 500 Hits it is most likely that under 500 Hits is more reasonable.
So, if Jeter has 3304 Hits now and were somehow able to get 200 Hits in each of his next two seasons, he would stand at 3704. If he were to turn 40 and perform like the average of the above 10 players (520 Hits) then that would give him 4224 Hits by his age 44 season.
However, if he performed like the average of the bottom seven on that list (447 Hits) then Jeter would have 4151 Hits by his age 44 season. So, he would be 44 and still be 105 Hits away from tying Rose.
So, the ONLY way it looks like Jeter is going to break the record is if he gets 200 or more Hits in each of the next two seasons and THEN performs better than the average of the top 10 guys to play after the age of 40.
David
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