I agree with Prewar and JSA on this one. In looking at examples pay more attention to the Lower case "i" in Smith (often did not DOT the i) and where the "t" is crossed in last name (vertical line extends high on the letter) In my opinion I think that eliminates the secretarial theory and also a forger would be more likely to get the spacing on the begining of the name correctly and miss the other two instances cited above.
As was suggested earlier look at a cross section of examples via google signed over the course of his life in order to make a determination.
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