Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Guys and Gals,<br /><br />It's raining here in the SF-Bay Area, so I suspect there will be a lot of Bay Area people posting today. So this topic will be for intellectual members of Net54. Basically, I'm talking about the two of you out there. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Here it is, there are 3 types of scarcity, which one would you rather focus your collection on: 1) real scarcity, by this I mean, Old Judges, Allen and Ginters etc. These are cards that were produced early, way before there were sophisticated marketing techniques; 2) artificial scarcity, an example of this is '52 Topps high nos., Topps thought there were too many cards out on the market so they dumped some in the ocean; and, 3) imagined, there seems to be a lot of them, but in the future people will demand a lot more.<br /><br />It's a serious topic...but have fun with it. After all, isn't that what Net54 is all about? <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />Peter C.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>For those that didn't notice. Graded cards is part of the discussion. On the above spectrum, I see graded cards as being part of the real scarcity and also partly artificial. The artificial part comes from the registries.<br /><br />Peter C.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>Given those three choices, who wouldn't want to focus on real scarcity?<br /><br />Of course -- condition always plays an issue. I love Old Judges to death, but if it is faded, re-backed and trimmed, I don't care how scarce that player/post variation is.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>I prefer to focus my collection on imagined scarcity. I also suspect the moon is made of green cheese so don't give me a hard time here.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>How is graded scarcity artificial? You surely are not suggesting that Randy Stucklemeyer's 1914 Cracker Jack set, replete with SGC 96 and 98 examples, is likely to deflate in the future because a myriad of MINT and GEM MINT 1914 CJ's come out of the woodwork. Right?

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Marc,<br /><br />The artificial part comes from the set registries (both PSA and SGC). Once they created the set registries, more people got their cards graded so that they can collect a set on the registry.<br /><br />Peter C.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>that "chaos" is part of your username? I think it is an accurate assessment...

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Rhys</b><p>I think the percieved scarcity issue is big with both popular E cards and Old Judge cards. People talk about E94-E98 cards as if they are extremely difficult to find relative to other issues. While they are tough, I think the hoarders of these issues tend to make them appear scarcer than they actually are. All it takes is 5-10 hoarders to scew anythings appearant scarcity. The same is true with Old Judge cards. 5-10 collectors each with multiple thousands of cards means that there are 20,000+ Old Judge cards out there that someday will probably hit the market again but have been secured away creating the appearance of a more scarce product than actually exists. I am not saying these issues are overvalued or that they are not scarce to begin with (IE E94's etc). I am only saying that they appear to be more scarce than they actually are because of the hoarders and intense collectors of these issues who stockpile hundreds of them away and essentially take them out of circulation.<br /><br />Rhys Yeakley

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>davidcycleback</b><p>I think investing in minor league prospects is an example of #3. You hope the player becomes a star in a couple of years and everyone wants his card. In a way, it might be an interesting game.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>Percieved scarcity, I would put that under imagined scarcity. It could be that the hoarder is getting doubles and triples because they think that in the future a lot more people will want the card. Alternatively, it could be imagined by the individual. They see a dozen card #3s in the '33 Goudeys and they imagine there should also be a dozen #4s in the '33 Goudeys.<br /><br />Peter C.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>davidcycleback</b><p>I think your example for #2 (52 Hi Numbers dumped in ocean) might be imagined.<br /><br />My theory on answering board questions is to give an answer vague enough that no one can prove you were wrong.<br /><br />So my answer to your question, Peter, is Yes.<br /><br />

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>David Smith</b><p>I will take REAL scarcity over any other type. By REAL scarcity I mean things like T231 Fans cigarette cards and Cap Anson in uniform Old Judges. It appears there weren't many of those made to begin with so there probably wont be many more coming out of the woodwork. <br /><br />Compare that to an SGC 94 Cracker Jack card. Think of the guys who spent big money on high grade cards and then that complete set came out of hiding that sold for $800,000 dollars. With that set, it wasn't just one or a few cards coming out, it was MANY. Who is to say that there isn't another set like that hidden away in an attic?? Not likely but with supposedly millions of Cracker Jack cards printed there is a chance.<br /><br />David

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Paul S</b><p>David, don't be so sure. Don't you know about the time I ordered flounder at a seafood restaurant and when I went to cut the first piece....... <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br /><br />(Peter, actually I'd heard that too a long time ago. Don't remember where.)

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>I like to think that most of us will pursue real scarcity or imagined (percieved) scarcity. What I detest is artificial scarcity. That seems to be what the card manufacturers' do today to sell cards. They want you to blow your money to find 1/1 scarce bat chip cards and stuff like that.<br /><br />Peter C.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>davidcycleback</b><p>Peter, I think most people in general agree with you, except most people think the 52 Topps high numbers are good cards to collect.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Cobby33</b><p>Technically, all cards are 1/1. Each and every single card is unique.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Frank Evanov</b><p>I recognize perceived rarity as a truer anomaly than implied scarcity, especially if the issue in question is quantity challenged as opposed to quality challenged. Then again condition sensitivity may lead to a plethora of uniqueness which could have serious repercussions on the paucity of an item.<br><br>Frank

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Frank, thanks for clearing that up for us. <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14>

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>davidcycleback</b><p>Is a bag of potato chips one thing? Two? Many? Other? It all depends on how the counter looks at it.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>Is the shortage of applesauce at the local supermarket evidence of real scarcity, perceived scarcity, imagined scarcity, or apple scarcity?

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>These potato chips are making me thirsty.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>peter chao</b><p>David C.,<br /><br />The interesting thing about artificial scarcity is that it can be caused by either the manufacturer or the buyer. The manufacturer can say we are going to reduce the supply by dumping cases of high numbers into the ocean. The buyer can say I've inherited $50 million, I'm going to buy $25 million worth of T206s. By doing this the number of cards in the market is sharply reduced thus increasing the prices for the remaining cards on the market.<br /><br />Peter C.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Ed Ivey</b><p>I thought scarcity was just rarity plugged into supply/demand. Real or imagined, it seems forever changing.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Looks like Jeff gave up his pretzels habit.<br /><br />And what on earth is this thread about?

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Marc S.</b><p>Are modern cards in poor condition considered scarce? If so, what type of scarcity? Since people today generally protect their cards, I imagine it must be significantly rarer to find a Ken Griffey Jr. rookie in poor condition than in mint condition.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Paul</b><p>Topps didn't dump the 52 high numbers in the ocean to create scarcity. The cards are scarce because no retailers wanted to buy them in 1952. They sat in a Topps warehouse until about 1960 when Topps officials dumped them into the ocean to save storage space.<br /><br />I'd call that real scarcity, though obviously these cards aren't nearly as scarce as many other cards.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Brian Weisner</b><p><br /> Hi Jeff,<br /> These pretzels are making me thirsty!!!! For Beer.......<br /><br /><br /> Be well Brian<br /><br /><br /><br />PS Hi Paul,<br /> Thanks for explaining the 52 Topps's "scarcity', I didn't have the time or the heart...

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>With today's technology many shipwrecks that were presumed lost forever have now been found, and fabulous jewels, silver and gold coins, and other artifacts have been brought to the surface.<br /><br />Perhaps we could salvage some of these 1952 high numbers that have resided at the bottom of the sea for nearly fifty years!<br /><br />Edited to correct my poor math.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Barry, your math is still wrong and these pretzels (and potato chips) are still making me thirsty.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>A previous poster mentioned they were dumped in 1960, and I used that date. That's nearly fifty years ago.<br /><br />And try unsalted pretzels! <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br />

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>Jeff Lichtman</b><p>Barry, one of the topics at the NY Dinner Thread II Dinner IV (?) will be the recent sighting of the Loch Ness Monster with a crate of 52 Topps under her arm.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>David Smith</b><p>But Barry, if you ate the pretzels while in the ocean looking for those 1952 Topps cards, wouldn't they then be salted?? <img src="/images/happy.gif" height=14 width=14><br /><br />To be serious for a second, I have always wondered if boxes of cardboard could last in the ocean and, if so, how long?? I don't think they would have survived too long so it would have been nice if they were IN something metal or had other things dumped overboard and on top of them. Then, they would have been protected a little better and silt cold cover them and they might have had a chance to survive.<br /><br />Hey, if a T206 Wagner can be found in a rusted tin can in the ruins of the foundation of a demolished house.....<br /><br />David

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>barrysloate</b><p>Salt water is very corrosive. I'll say those high numbers were destroyed in a day or two.<br /><br />Interestingly, gold coins that spent 150 years in the ocean and recently retrieved are in exactly the same condition as they were when the boat sank. Gold is indestructible.<br /><br />And on another note, Yankees and Blue Jays are tied 11-11 in the bottom of the 9th and they've already been playing for four and a half hours. One of the slowest games ever played.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>davidcycleback</b><p>Scarcity is defined by supply versus demand (supply less than demand). Rarity is a measurement of amount only. How popular or unpopular a card has no effect on it's rarity, but would on its scarcity. A standard if imperfect measurement of scarcity is sales price.<br /><br />I think natural versus artificially created scarcity, long term versus fleeting scarcity, are legitimate ways of looking at it. The 1923 Maple Crispette Case Stengel is an example of vintage intentionally created rarity.<br /><br />It's safe to say any 1952 Topps tossed in the ocean will not have lasted-- may not physically exist at all. And people trying to destroy cards by tossing them in the ocean, don't put them in protective metal boxes to preserve them. Defeats the purpose.

Scarcity, Real, Artificial, and Imagined
 

Posted By: <b>leon</b><p>I will always take real (quantity of cards know in total in set) scarcity over "grade" scarcity....but that's just me. I tend to like things others don't, so much.....<br /><br /><img src="http://www.network54.com/Realm/tmp/1190503622.JPG">