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26-year-old collector buys 1952 Hank Aaron Indy Clowns postcard for $275,000
There's always talk about how vintage will die when everyone after Gen X rules the hobby and no one cares about old-time players.
This guy's guest shoots that theory down — he just sold everything in his collection except a Toleteros Josh Gibson to buy one of two known examples of the '52 Aaron Clowns PC for $275K! LINK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uQ9EEaCDaQ Discussion about the item specifically starts at 13:33, but it's all worth a watch. There will ALWAYS be people who love and value the history. |
Let's hope he has a lot of bougie friends that love vintage too.
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I never understood that argument about vintage. How many of us saw Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, King Kelly? Hell I never saw Mantle and I'm in my 50's.
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But for today's younger collectors, the heyday of their hobby memories are more in the 80s, 90s and early 2000s eras, which leave quite a distance between their collective memory and pre-war. I have a son. As he gets older he'll hear stories about Don Mattingly and the 1996 Yankees. I won't have any stories about Mickey Mantle either, except maybe for seeing him at card shows in the early 90s when I was really young. |
Seems like your everyday 26 year old stubble beard card collector.
Not |
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There are few of us. There may be more in the future but as a person who has collected their whole life, attended shows their whole life, there were never a lot of me. It's easy for me to see people of my generation coming back to Griffey, McGwire, Ichiro, etc. and it's even easy for me to see people my age getting into Ruth, Gehrig and Cobb. But what I don't see in the future is an interest in type card collecting, in collecting lesser pre-war HOFers and I think a lot of the niche stuff we have now, like paying so strongly for an Art Whitney with Dog OJ or the premiums on the Shag or the Titus T206, is probably not the future of the hobby. I'm also unsure how much interest there will still be in complete sets in the future. Nobody really has any interest in complete sets now. I wonder if anyone ever completes, say, the newest 2025 Bowman Chrome first autograph set. I think cards like the tough T207s are nearing their end of hobby relevance. |
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Respect this guy for his conviction. He has good taste. Certainly smarter in terms of value than buying a Ferrari.
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I was born in the 70s and started following baseball at a competent level around 1982. I got turned onto baseball card collecting in 1983 and the rest is my wallet's history.
I have a sizable collection of 1950s+ stuff from all teams, and of course my junk wax heroes. I didn't get to see most of the 1950s-1960s players in their time, but I've seen enough clips on TV and listened to enough people talk about them. ...but I have no interest in having cards of Babe Ruth, Cy Young, Walter Johnson, Ty Cobb, etc. If it wasn't for caring about the deeper dive into Cubs team lineage history, I probably wouldn't be into the pre-war scene at all. I didn't get into it until I decided to get into the cards of the players I was reading about in team history books. My 1800s-current Cubs collection has been (and still is) a fun chase and build. The pre-war part of that chase ends 13 cards from now...unless I discover another name I should add to the list...which occasionally happens. |
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My father was a teenager in the 1940s when he saw Babe Ruth on the street in New York and the Babe nodded hello to him. He never saw Ruth or Gehrig play but he saw DiMaggio's generation. They were long gone by the time I got baseball and cards in my consciousness. When I was ten I was crazy for cards of the stars then Hank Aaron, Dr. J, etc. When I was in my late twenties and able to finally spend on cards it was 1950s Topps and Bowman I'd coveted as a kid, followed by T, E, W and R cards. The contemporary is the gateway to the older. Same as it ever is and ever will be. |
Looks like Jonah has posted here before. An interesting thread.
https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=362388 |
Hey coulda hada ……
Autographed ondeck circle……
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I guess he has been a bit of a vintage collector before this, and with some people who have complaints about his methods. Plus now I know the story behind why snowy got banned. He sure did ask for it.
I do think that there are a fair number of people who make a splash and buy a big card or two or three, with the hope to make some money on it. And maybe someday they really get into full blown collecting? I think there are fewer of those people who have a sizeable collection and run around buying commons and lesser stars from obscure prewar issues. So I guess I would draw a distinction there. Although in this case, he kinda worked backwards, starting off collecting an obscure issue, and then selling it off to pick up a single big card. |
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I can't even imagine being 26 and being able to spend that type of cash. Good for this dude. That's a HUGE get. I actually think it could double in value before long.
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I deal with more and more guys in their 20s and 30s every day. Seems like they get started in 50s and 60s vintage and over time they strayed towards Pre-War. It’s great for the hobby and it’s great for our collections. Pre-War will likely always be a microcosm of the hobby but it brings a lot of attention.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
The more I think about it, the more I think that that Aaron postcard is massively undervalued.
Two known copies, and he has the one from Ed Scott. Hank Aaron will resonate more with the younger generations than Babe Ruth, whose premier cards are going for 7 figures. In 30 years, the 20-year olds today who then become much more financially independent as a generation, are going to gravitate toward a guy like Hank Aaron. The narrative is just so much purer than that of the Babe. The 20 year olds today are going to want the rare Aarons and the Ohtanis. |
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The younger generations also love sports gambling, so Pete Rose should be an icon. |
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It's so funny to watch a bunch of old men pontificate about the future interests of younger generations as if they are a alien race we are trying to figure out. Humans are humans, and nothing has or will change from generation to generation, no matter how much we think the younger generation is so much lessor of a species than us.
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Things do change, just painfully slow sometimes. |
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1952 Hank Aaron Indianapolis Clowns
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Hi, I am the owner of the 1952 Hank Aaron Indianapolis Clowns Postcard being discussed in this thread.
I think it is one of the best cards in the hobby. There has been a lot of conversation about the 'young' collectors interest in vintage. As I said in the video, I don't see vintage ever dying. The legends of the game will alway be the legends of the game, and we buy cardboard to connect ourselves to the history of the person and the history of baseball. I collected vintage from a young age. I was 10-12 buying 1958 Topps All Stars on eBay for $20 a piece years ago. Hank Aaron has always been my #1 player to collect. My first 'big' purchase was of a 1955 Topps Hank Aaron PSA 6 for $400. I used a whole paycheck from a high school job to buy that one. After college, I sold off every card I owned to buy just one. A 1954 Topps Hank Aaron rookie PSA 6 for $17k. It seems to be only fitting that I did the same thing for the best Hank Aaron card in the world outside of the 2 PSA 10 rookies, albeit for a lot more than $17k. I would pose this question for the group, would you rather own a 1954 Topps Hank Aaron in a PSA 9 for ~$400k+ or the Postcard I bought? Obviously I chose the postcard, but to get into my reasons: There are currently 25 PSA 9 Hank Aaron Topps rookies. They sell around one time every 1-2 years. The difficult part is not finding one for sale, it is having $400k to spend on a baseball card. I prefer buying cards which are most importantly hard to find. Someone can have all the money in the world, but if the 2 people who own this postcard aren't selling then they can never buy it. |
Jonah - enjoy your new acquisition! I’m with you that the rare stuff is the most fun to own and enjoy.
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Jonah, thank you for posting and sharing your story. Your Aaron and Gibson pieces are both incredible. The Negro Leagues were so important to the game of baseball and there are so few artifacts to collect. Congratulations!
I hope you are right that interest in vintage cards will continue to grow. My 37 year old son still likes modern, but I am holding out hope for him. Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk |
To the question at hand, choice between a 1:2 ’52 IC Aaron pre-rookie, or a 1:25 PSA 9 ’54 Topps Aaron rookie…there are a couple of ways to look it: Long-term investment or PC, positives and negatives.
’52 IC Aaron pre-rookie: Positive: Negotiating power-With the owner effectively controlling 50% of the market and retaining approximately 50% of the market cap, they can set future auction reserve and move the market inorganically to the desired minimum exit price. Thus, the sky’s the limit…$400K(ish) is possible to match the established market of the PSA 9 ’54 Topps Aaron rookie. If current buyer paid up about 40% in 1 year ($199K to $275K), perhaps another buyer would pay up 40% next to $385K? However, given current buyer is specifically an Aaron collector and lives in Atlanta, there’s a specific xfactor of nostalgic and regional connection that could be driving individual demand. There’s significant upside from an investment standpoint, given possible ROI. Negative: Price volatility-The case study of the Baltimore News Ruth pre-rookie proved just because one person pays up for a super scarce card, doesn’t guarantee the next won’t actually pay less. This effectively created a ‘down round’ as it were. However, that may have been a function of timing, marketing opportunity, and/or pricing strategy. There’s a significant upside from a PC perspective, given ROI wouldn’t matter if the card’s held in perpetuity. ’54 Topps Aaron rookie: Positive: Mature market-There’s a well established market for the PSA 9, created by hundreds of transactions over many decades, moving the price organically up to $400K. Additionally, there are an unknown number of PSA 8 owners whom could be high potential bidders and acquirers of the PSA 9 as an upgrade of the PSA 8 version they already have invested in and committed to. However, 1:25 is less appealing than 1:2. There’s significant upside from an investment standpoint, given the protective moat created by a well established market. Negative: Alternative investment-The elephant in the room is that a $400K price point can buy a collector pretty much any card they want. So at this level, it’s not ’54 Topps Aaron vs. ’52 IC Aaron, but Aaron’s vs. ’50 Toleteros Gibson vs. ’52 Topps Mantle vs. ’14 CJ Joe Jackson, and on and on. I’m a fractional CFO and financial modeling consultant, and advise companies through raising millions in investment capital, reminding CEO’s that VCs and PE firms don’t have a choice between equity in their company vs. sitting on their capital, but rather their company vs. hundreds of other investment options (including pretty much a satisfaction guarantee in vintage baseball cards!). There’s a significant upside from a PC perspective, given this card is the rookie of one of the game’s most influential and transcending players. So the answer, classically is, it depends… |
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WHAT people collect has changed dramatically in 40 years and especially recently, whether it's basketball having the most valuable cards a few decades after it was DOA, game-used inserts, women's sports, UFC and wrestling over boxing, soccer, RPGs, whatever. What they collect won't look exactly like what takes place on this site, but it's pretty safe to say values of the GOATs and the most historically significant athletes are safe. And yes, baseball is less important to them than past generations. Set collecting is also unknown to them. |
There’s another element to the analysis here, comparing this postcard to a rookie in PSA 9 - while there are only 2 postcards currently known, there could always be others that surface later. Not too differently, I paid handsomely a few years ago for a Mays postcard that was 1 of 1. Only now there is another one that recently surfaced. And there could be more. Especially with the Aaron postcard if word gets out that buyers are lining up to pay 6 figures for them.
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And the fact that new things to collect are different, doesn't mean they won't collect the old things too. I collect both ultra-modern, 90s, vintage, and pre-war. Plenty of people do. |
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to worry about whether the next generation will be as into vintage as we are. Certainly there are some collectibles that have waned as time has moved on. Whether the same dynamic will hit our world remains to be seen. I can certainly see arguments for both sides. We’ll see what happens.
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Again, yes, future generations will collect old things, but their old things won't all be the same as ours. |
I have a 27-year-old child so i have hope for the future. Her friends are more mature, more realistic, and more concerned with the healing of the world than my generation ever was at their age.
But I digress... Jonah, nice of you to drop in and comment. I wholeheartedly agree with your approach. I've written a pile on absolute rarity versus condition rarity, manufactured rarity, etc. I also gravitate towards having something that very few others have. I'd rather be a gatekeeper than a pit stop. Here's a tough 1982 Aaron card from Korea, since you are an Aaron collector; thought you might enjoy it: https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...0Aaron%201.jpg https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...0Aaron%202.jpg |
Great one, Adam ... does this mean photos are working???
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As for which will increase in value the most, or fastest, I have no idea. |
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Your anecdote still ignores that those kids who are collecting modern cards now, a large percentage will one day collect vintage. The fact that you are hung up on what they collect now shows you just aren't getting it. Sport. |
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Based on my years of experience, the hobby trend of the future is:
Whatever I'm interested in buying for my collection will either retain or appreciate in value.
Whatever I've lost interest in and want to sell will go down in value. |
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