How rare are true auctions on eBay these days?
 

Seems that only two sellers (Prob & GM) on eBay actually have the nerve to run true auctions these days starting at $ .99 and letting the market dictate the final price of the card. Of course, that is operating under the caveat that no shill bidding is taking place. �� I am not including auctions where the opening bid is equivalent to an aggressive Buy It Now price and there is only upside and no risk that a final price falls far below expectations. So, outside of these two scenarios, what percentage of eBay listings do you think are true auctions these days?

I’ll start things off at 2%……

There has to be an easy way to come up with the exact percentage at any given moment. If you determine what it is, please let us know!

I have no idea what the answer to your question is for the whole of ebay, but for the stuff I look for I would say it's about 50 / 50.

Scott Gaynor runs true auctions frequently.

As does Jonstats, and there are plenty of others.

true auctions on ebay?
 

This is an interesting question. I definitely don't believe there's an "easy" way to determine the percentage of true auctions, however. A person would either a) have to take the time to monitor every live vintage card auction on ebay for months, then compile the data and see if it is consistent enough to arrive at a percentage or b) somehow be persuasive or industrious enough to find out from an ebay representative (I place the odds of this at near zero)...

I will say it would be nice if sellers did have the courage to auction their
items on the site since it is, well, an auction site... I have used ebay as a last
option for almost 2 decades because of its many flaws and frustrations. One
of the challenges I voice to a seller who has annoyed me (rudeness, absurd
values or expectations, etc) is to have the courage to actually auction his
card over a 7-day period. The typical reaction is either crickets, or irrational
tripe that reminds me of why ebay is my last option for cards:) Trent King

I hadn't thought about Jon in decades!

That's been my experience. I'd say about 50/50 for what I look for.

People must be looking at some different venue than you and I, Phil. I am with you but I say far less than 2%. I just did one of my saved searches. It came up with 13000+ items. When I hit the button for auctions-only, there were 157. Make of it what you want to, but I think 2% is high.
Again, maybe others are factoring it differently?
.

Of auctions, I would say 25 percent are true auctions. The others, well, lets say I have some concerns.

4 Sharp Corners runs continual ebay auctions as well

This is why Comps don't really make sense to me - we rarely have an accurate "true price" of items due to lack of auctions and IMO it makes the market more or less a complicated game of Hot Potato

What makes you think that in auctions off of ebay -- with the big auction houses -- that all the items being sold end with true market prices and not shilled results?

In my assumption, all auctions seem to be shilled (except mine which seem to just straight up ignored).

I actually stand by my statement, not enough auctions to set a "true price" - shilling would not be as much of an issue if more cards were auctioned.

I do get there's some things that have limited copies, and therefore limited sales which are subject to shilling, fraud, etc. but that's a risk someone who is purchasing those types of cards must consider

When I win an expensive card in an auction I just assume it’s the price the consigner was willing to accept. Too many desperadoes in the hobby who can’t bear to leave a penny on the table.

If an item stays on the museum at a high retail asking price for 10 years, but an auction clears in 7 days, does that impact our perception and math when we look at a moment in time and attempt to compare the number of items up for auction v using BIN?

I suspect there are more auctions than we realize. But our perceptions tend to tilt the other way simply because of the museum factor for BIN items that malinger interminably.

I have the same experience. I like to use auction format more than BIN to feel more comfortable paying theoretical market prices vs. dream and a prayer pricing. I would say 2% is high, I see 1% at best in searches.

I am not at the large-scale volume as G. Morris and others - and buy from them when I can. Still after over 25 years on eBay I still hold auctions - up to a few years ago it was at least every week Mon to Mon 7-day auctions. Have turned to more shows these days and still use eBay a little bit now. I used the B/S/T eBay page often when I ran decent stuff – it’s just getting harder to find cards and other items in volume to take a chance on auctions anymore. Tried my own website and auctions and that was way to much overhead. I keep trying to find stuff and hope to expand as I get closer to retirement age. Interesting posts and I do see less and less auctions with bids on eBay. Traditional auctions are getting harder to find even on eBay. There are too many auctions that do not even sell and it is hard to search with Buy it Now as auctions or high prices as auctions with no bids, floods the searching! eBay sometimes is the only platform for the little guy, I have tried the PSA vault and has worked ok and my end prices do a little better, but then fees eat into profit. Also have tried working with some auctions houses in the past and that can sometimes be difficult.

to be fair to sellers like me it's maybe 5 - 10%

and agree Scott Gaynor runs true auctions frequently and wish I could get more stuff for him to auction.

Thanks!

Jimmy

You got that right, Jeff. They know who they are and we know who they are. That’s how the COVID boom was fueled. I see round 2 happening now, especially with modern cards, as more people than ever before having more money (or access to more money) than ever before and aren’t afraid/ashamed to spend it wildly, because they can.

Among Ebay search filters are Auction Format and Listings With Bids. I find the latter filter extremely useful.

Thanks, John. Didn’t know that even existed. Eliminates all those with opening bids equal to Buy It Now prices.

According to chatgpt, which made an educated guess: about 3–6% of all eBay baseball card listings are true auctions starting at $0.99 or less.

I used to like Ebay better when it was a dedicated auction site.

:(

PSA itself is actually running a lot of true auctions now (or, technically, people keeping their cards in the PSA vault and choosing to sell their cards at auction through the PSA account). I just won a T205 Joss PSA 3 last night in one.

I found this from 2013 on the interwebs :

"Auction site eBay isn't really much of an auction site anymore. This month, a study from the National Bureau of Economic Research reveals that less than 15 percent of all eBay listings are auction-only. Today, the majority of sales are made with eBay's "Buy It Now" option -- that is, buying it for a listed price like one does on Amazon or any other e-commerce site. This is down from nearly 100 percent 10 years ago."

There is a ton of "Live Auctions" on ebay but I don't think many are selling vintage when I have checked. With these auctions it appears the timer is around 15 seconds and resets with each bid. Just click the ebay live auction ( red ) on the left side of the page.

Ebay actually dissuades them
 

I sell a decent amount on Ebay and list a mix of auctions and BIN. Frequently when I list "auction style" Ebay charges a listing fee which it does not for a BIN listing.