The second and third greatest base stealers of all time?
 

Ricky Henderson is easily the top base stealer of all time. But who should get the Silver and Bronze in this key category? Lou Brock, Vince Coleman, Ty Cobb, Maury Wills, Tim Raines, or...? Why?

:confused:

I'm going to limit my response to players that I've actually seen play. I'm partial to Vince Coleman and Tim Raines for the Silver and Bronze, respectively. I recall watching Vince Coleman, who was sort of a one-dimensional player. Everyone in the stadium knew he was going to try to steal, but still stole a lot of bases in a relatively short career (752 in 13 years, versus 808 in 23 years for Tim Raines).

Honorable mention for me goes to Ozzie Smith. He ranks 22nd all-time in stolen bases and 5th among modern Hall of Famers (behind only Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, Tim Raines and Joe Morgan), while accumulating the highest defensive WAR in history and winning 13 consecutive Gold Gloves.

I have to go Raines. Insane percentage for the any amount of steals let alone for the guy in 5th on the all-time list. Almost 85% success rate.

I Like Coleman, but sticking with the success rate theme I'm going to go Willie Wilson for 3rd at over 83%.

Honorable mention to Davey Lopes who had an 83% success rate in an era that was unheard of, plus he is credited with teaching Rickey a lot about reading pitchers and getting a jump. Rickey became a much higher percentage guy after being mentored by Lopes.

Incidentally the list of highest success percentage for steals for guys who had over 500 attempts goes

Raines
Wilson
Lopes
Rollins
Carl Crawford
Ichiro
Joe Morgan
Coleman
Henderson
Roberto Alomar
Jose Reyes

Those are the only guys over 80%. I was curious after writing the above, didn't know that going in, I just knew the guys I picked were very successful.

Lopes was first base coach for the Phillies from 2007 to 2010, and I think the Phillies led the league (or were close to it) in stolen base percentage when he was there. I remember many of the players credited him with helping them greatly improve their running game as a team.

Well Rollins is on the list of over 500 attempts guys over 80% and if I remember correctly Utley and Victorino were high percentage guys albeit with less attempts.

Utley had a career success rate of 87.5% but with only 176 total attempts. In 2009 he had 23 steals without being caught.

Victorino was at 83.3% with 277 total attempts.

As a team in 2006, Phillies were at 78.6%. 2007 (Lopes first year as tgeir coach) was 87.9%. 2008 was 84.5%. 2009 was 81.0%. 2010 was 83.7%. Definitely a good run (pun intended) when he was there.

Come on guys
 

To me it’s no contest…… Ty Cobb held the record until 1977 with 892…… including an incredible 54 steals of home!!! No one else even comes close!!

+1 and why no mention at all of Maury Wills since OP?

Perhaps this is an unpopular view, but I just can't get it up for pre-war, deep pre-integration player accolades, especially when it comes to something like base running. Ty Cobb may have been a freak of nature in his era, but he was just so much slower than modern era players. Ty Cobb reportedly ran the 100-yard dash in 10.2 seconds, which compares very unfavorably to Vince Coleman at 9.5 seconds and Rickey Henderson at 9.6 or so. I couldn't find Tim Raines's 100-yard dash time, but he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.3 seconds.

And I don't know how good the catchers were back in Ty Cobb's day, but I'd be willing to bet that they didn't throw to second base nearly as well or as quickly as the guys in the modern era.

Finally, the fact that Ty Cobb could steal home so many times seems to me to be less a testament to his ability and more an indictment of the level of preparation and coaching that persisted during his era.

I know it is unfair to compare across eras, but when we are talking about the best ever, I think there should be a bias toward modern players. The game has become so much more professional and athletically competitive than back in the 1910s and 20s.

I’d go with Tim Raines , wish I could say Davey Lopes one of my favorite players
. Lopes didn’t break into the league until he was 28 and at the age of 40! he stole 47 bases in 51 attempts

I'll break it down into categories like Rickey's career.

Under 30 years old and Over 30 years old.

Best Under 30 - Rock Raines

Best Over 30 - Davey Lopes

Both for their ruthless efficiency.

Very soft spot for Vince Coleman. Those 1st 5-6 years in the league was just chaos on the basepaths.

He wasn't as good at getting on base as Rickey, and that really hurt him as he aged and became less and less valuable as an all-around player...but when he did...man...he was going, whether you liked it or not.

Willie McGee was the much better and more valuable player of the 2 speedsters on those Cardinals teams. Hell, even Ozzie, Tommy Herr and Andy Van Slyke were better players, and more efficient then Vince, but man, was Vince fun to watch when he got on.

Also, feels a little wrong to leave Lou Brock out of the equation, even if a lot of people think he might have been a little over-rated.

How could anyone think Lou Brock was overrated? He was the MVP of the 1967 World Series and won both the Baseball Digest Player of the Year Award and the Sporting News Player of the Year Award in 1974. He hit .304 at the age of forty and had a lifetime batting average of .293.

Was he that bad a fielder or something?

:confused:

That's precisely it, and why I think Ty Cobb is a very legitimate candidate for inclusion on a list of the very top base stealers of all time.

:)

I never saw him play in person, but analytics don't like him very much. For a non-power guy and leadoff hitter, he had a very respectable batting average, but he struck out waaaay more then he walked.

For perspective he struck out more then Rickey Henderson in about 2100 less plate appearances, while walking almost 1500 less times.

Defensive metrics kind of hate him to. His range factor was very good for most of the 60's, but he either led the league in outfield errors, or was near the top in almost every year he played the outfield. Errors aren't the end all be all when it comes to Outfield play, so I'm guessing he had a weaker arm and extra bases were taken on him, on a regular basis.

Rickey wasn't a great outfielder either, at least from the eye test, but the metrics there favor him much much better, then Lou Brock, and they both played the majority of their careers in Left Field...so there isn't a Center Fielder bias working for either player.

That said, I think Lou Brock is a player you would have loved to have had on your team, one way or another. Whether you think he might have been over-rated, under-rated, or just right.

But if we are selecting the "best ever", we are forced to compare across eras.

Paavo Nurmi is tied (with Carl Lewis) with the most track and field Olympic gold medals -- and he was rightfully a legend of his time -- but he never ran against a Kenyan or an Ethiopian.

If you think that Nurmi is one of the best middle distance runners "ever", then I suppose I understand why you'd go with Ty Cobb for base stealing.

Ty Cobb is certainly in the conversation, if the argument is that Cobb was a modern player talent wise playing with a bunch of Rubes for 20 years and wound up with 897 stolen bases (4th all time) without the league trying to do everything they could to stop him, which would include things that aren't allowed in the modern era. I'm just not buying it.

And I am! Ty Cobb is fourth all-time in stolen bases and only Ricky Henderson and Lou Brock stole more bases since 1900. Moreover Cobb's total of 96 stolen bases in 1915 wasn't exceeded until Maury Wills stole 104 a whopping 47 years later in 1962!

;)

I think it was Aparicio who revitalized the stolen base in the late 50s, but even he was putting up numbers in the 50s. Wills' season was insane. It's hard to have a conversation about stolen bases without Cobb, Wills and Brock, IMO.

So I just reconfirmed that the only Maury Wills cards I have in my Baseball card collection from the 1954-65 period are the 1962 Post Cereal and 1962 Shirriff Coins ones. Looking through my 1951-1990 Topps Baseball Cards book, I was then shocked to learn that Maury Wills' first Topps card wasn't until 1967! Can anyone explain why no Maury Wills' cards were included in the 1959-66 Topps sets?

:confused:

Contract issue, I presume. He in is 63 Fleer.

Are we not counting Billy Hamilton since he was pre 1900? He had over 100 a few times.

Oh I'm counting Billy Hamilton alright! He had more than 96 stolen bases a whopping five times:

1889 - 111
1891 - 111
1890 - 102
1894 - 100
1895 - 97

Hamilton's 111 stolen base mark was not exceeded until Lou Brock stole 118 in 1974! Hamilton also set the major league record for runs scored in a season with 198 in 1894.

But I was contending that Ty Cobb belongs up there with the "modern" era players so I was moving only forward in time.

;)

Different rules.

By my calculations, and somebody please correct me if I am wrong, Rickey Henderson would have had 166 Stolen Bases in 1982, playing under the same rules as Billy Hamilton.

I thought this was an interesting rule change in 1979.


This could affect some of the "caught stealing" %'s of different base stealers from different era's. Probably not by a lot, but maybe enough to affect some efficiency ratings slightly.

Please explain.

:confused:

In Billy Hamilton's era, you were awarded a "stolen base" if you went from 1st to 3rd on a single, 2nd to home on a single, 1st to home on a double.

Another way to explain it...if as a baserunner on base, you took an extra base beyond what the hitter took, that was considered a "stolen base". This rule wasn't changed until after 1897.

I like the initial rule. It's internal mathematical consistency enables every play to be slotted into it's own neat little box. I've always hated all the exceptions to the general rules in baseball.

;)

While I wouldn't put him in the top three, and maybe not even in the top 5, Ill just put the name out there. A friend of mine really like this player in about 1980. I was surprised looking at his stats.

Cesar Cedeno. 550 stolen bases, and a decent string of seasons with 50+ and 53.1 war
And a sort of expected fall off at age 30 He did lead the league in getting caught a couple times, and his last few years hanging on in the big leagues weren't impressive.

But with the third most between 70 and 79 at least deserves a mention.

Cesar Cedeno certainly caught my attention when he broke into the league. Big stars with Houston were a rare thing in the 1960's and 1970's.

;)

Cedeno was a really, really good player. Especially when he was younger. Compiled almost 36 WAR through age 25, before injuries started taking their toll.

Looking at his Baseball Reference comparables, he started his career looking like Vada Pinson and Yaz....but finished it with Nick Markakis and Amos Otis. Good players, but not quite the potential he flashed early on.

So how about Elly de la Cruz and his MLB leading 67 stolen bases in 2024? Does he have what it takes to become an all time great on the base paths or will he soon flame out?

I think it depends upon the path he takes. To become a base stealing legend he needs to increase his OBP. This means that he has to acquire more respect for the strike zone. His strikeout to walk ratio is bad. Moreover he needs to learn to hit the ball where it's pitched. Swinging through one's power alley doesn't exactly help get on base when the ball isn't there.

So it's up to him. He has the physical tools but does he have it upstairs?

:confused:

De La Cruz needs to work on his percentage as well. With all the advantages being handed base stealers today 67/83 isn't anything to write home about.

Unlike Rickey, most of the great base stealers never figured out how to walk very much.

Just off the top of my head I looked up Willie Wilson, Ron LeFlore, Vince Coleman, Lou Brock, Ichiro

None of them Walked very much.

Rickey walked 117 times, his 1st year in the league. This was before pitchers even knew he had enough Power, they needed to worry about that to.

Tim Raines, who came up at almost the exact same time as Rickey, was one of the exceptions. He didn't Walk as much as Rickey, but he Walked 97 times his age 23 season, always Walked more then he struck out, and sported a very respectable lifetime OBP of .385.

For perspective, Ichiro Suzuki who we all pat on the back for being the prototypical modern "Hit 'em where they ain't" guy, who had 10 straight 200 hit seasons to start off his career...has a lifetime OBP of .355.

Either a player has an eye for Walks early on, or they don't. I'm sure there's some outliers, but not many players get a better eye for the ball, as they get older.

Bernie Williams was an exception to that rule I can think of off the top of my head, but he got corrective eye surgery when they figured out he couldn't damn well see very well...and also...he was a terrible base stealer. :D

I'm pretty sure that taking an extra base (compared to where the batter stopped) counted as a stolen base only during the seasons 1892-1897. Before that, stolen bases were scored more like modern ones, except that they were credited with a stolen base when there was an obvious fielding error on the play, and also when they over-ran the base and were then put out.

Yes, you are correct. The rules did fluctuate a bit.

Also, throwing a monkey wrench into this whole thing. For some reason "Caught Stealing" was not a widely kept track of stat until we were further along into the 20 Century.

Ty Cobb appears to have been a wildly inefficient base stealer when you take into account he's missing 10+ seasons of "caught stealing" statistics from his career line.

I'll go with Cobb. Just read the bio on the back of his T205 card and you'll know why.

For the uninitiated (including me):

I really like this insouciant street punk shot of Vince Coleman from the 1977 Topps set:

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...f1614df9e.webp (Not mine.)

He should never have grown the moustache!

;)

Yes. Lou Brock didn't exceed Ty Cobb's stolen base total of 897 until 1977 which was almost 49 years after Cobb hung up his cleats. The fact that Cobb is still number two in career triples with 295 and number one in lifetime batting average with a mark of .366 impresses me as well.

;)

Yes. Luis Aparicio led the American League in stolen bases for nine straight seasons from 1956 to 1964 with annual totals of 21, 28, 29, 56, 51, 53, 31, 40 and 57. As a result he's one of my favourite players from the era. I have his 1959 Topps card:

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...7c1e37036c.png

I also just bought the 1959 "Keystone Combo" card that he shares with Nellie Fox although I've not received it yet. In addition I have his 1962 Canadian Post Cereal card, his 1962 Shirriff coin, his 1963 Salada coin and his 1964 Topps coins.

:cool:

Here's my 1959 "Keystone Combo" card:

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...feef79b9f9.png

:cool:

Though HOFer James "Cool Papa" Bell doesn't appear on any of the Stolen Base record lists, he was reputed to be the fastest player of his time on the base paths:

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...c2b3eb24d.webp

Sure sounds to me as if Cool Papa Bell played baseball the way it should be played! I may in time add an Ultra Pro page for Cool Papa Bell Topps, Fleer, Donruss and Upper Deck cards to the mini binder I'm envisioning for the cards of base stealers who played outside the 1954-65 years that's my focus for the Baseball cards I collect.

:cool:

According to legend, Paige said of Bell he was so fast he could turn off the lights, get into bed and pull up the covers before the room got dark.

Don't know how, but Babe Ruth stole home 10 times. And Lou Gehrig stole home 15 times. Lou Brock zero.

It should also be mentioned that Ty Cobb led the American League in stolen bases a whopping six times - 1907(49), 1909(76), 1911(83), 1915(96), 1916(68) and 1917(55). Cobb was unquestionably a phenomenal base stealer.

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...2ed876e039.jpg (Not my card.)

:)

I would argue we don't have enough data to state he was phenomenal. He was FREQUENT, but we don't know how effective he was.

Hmmmm. Admittedly from the statistics we have he was indeed Caught Stealing much of the time. For example in 1915 when he stole 96 bases he was caught 38 times. Therefore I guess I should have said "fabled" rather than "phenomenal".

Given that he led the American League in Stolen Bases six times, his record of 96 Stolen Bases in 1915 remained unbroken for 47 years and his lifetime record of 897 Stolen Bases wasn't exceeded until 1977 which was a whopping 49 years after his retirement, I'd still argue that Ty Cobb belongs right up there with the most legendary base stealers of all time.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/i...5EM-Iyuq4qJY9Q

:cool:

Based on the records we do have, Ty Cobb was a wildly inefficient base stealer by today's standards. Must have been fun to watch though.

Kind of like watching Russell Westbrook play basketball.

When it doesn't work, it's ugly and chaotic and messy and problematic from an analytics standpoint. When it does work, it's beautiful and violent and effective and scary for their opponents.

Rickey has some fun early years where he got picked off and got caught a lot...because everybody in the ballpark knew he was going. He seemed to get more efficient as he got older and the teams he played on got better.

Ty Cobb, not so much. He ran less as he got older, but he was pretty much just "chaos" for his whole career. :D

My impression is that teams attempted the hit-and-run a lot in those days - it's possible that Cobb was often counted caught stealing on failed hit-and-runs.

Rickey credits Davey Lopes (an all time great from an efficiency standpoint) from changing him from being a runner to being a base stealer. You can literally see in the stats the years they spent together. If he had been as efficient in 1982 as he was in 1983 he'd have stolen 150 bases.