Dealers' Pricing at the National
 

It's no secret that 50's and 60's vintage HOF card prices have slipped over the past year or so, even some big stars like Koufax and Aaron. It makes me wonder if dealers' pricing at the National will be realistic, or in many cases still inflated. Dean's Cards springs to mind. If nothing else it should give serious buyers more purchasing power to strike deals with case owners.

We can always dream!

Retail always seems to mean the price is a bit more than you might pay at auction. The trade-off is that you don’t have to deal with the hassle of an auction, and the possibility that it might go even higher. For the seller, they get to skip the uncertainty of the process and lock in a price that’s good enough while potentially giving up some upside if it goes into a complete bidding war at auction.

My guess is that your best bet to get a deal on major stars is going to be on lower graded stuff. Once you get into the higher grades, especially for the earlier issues for the major postwar stars, it’s hard to imagine that a dealer will be willing to come down by very much. Maybe a little, but getting a serious deal seems unlikely.

Same as every big show. Most prices will be stupid high. Lots of things will have no price. Lots of people will explain what they "are into something" like that matters.

I'm not unsympathetic. Costs money to travel round and thank god people do it. But prices are laregely crazy on really desirable stuff. If the card is worth $3500 you can bet it will be marked at $10,000 or higher.

Look at eBay. Almost none of the prices for vintage cards or memorabilia have moved off stupid Covid highs. Expect more of the same.

One aspect to point out, as I tend to do, is that unless you live without easy driving distance of the NSCC and don't have to pony up for Hotel Rooms and usually more expensive food, you have a minimum of 3K out of your pocket before you even sell a card.

That number is a hard number to match and certainly makes it harder to make your expenses than at a local card show which costs you a few hours and $50 for a table

Of course there are deals at the NSCC but you just have to dig a bit

Rich

Prices on the good stuff are going to be as high as ever. You will hear I don’t need to sell, it will go up again even more in the long run. If I don’t get my number I’ll be fine...dealers have the upper hand on the good stuff. They will hold or give to REA , Goldin, Heritage, and get insane numbers as always, the auction houses keep things in motion. Ok sure th Mediocre stuff and less there will be deals to be had. Just don’t get high hopes thinking you will get the real good stuff reasonable that won’t happen.

I’ve never understood this argument. As an attendee from out of state, except for table fees, I’ve spent the same before even buying a card 😀

Exactly with that logic that means everything we buy has to be worth $3,000 more than we paid for it. Sellers spend the money for the right to have more eyes on your wares and the buyers are hoping they see things they can’t buy at their local shows.
With that seller logic let me know when you are set up at your local show your prices should be a lot cheaper.😀
Rick

I love when the dealers say, "Let me see what I have into it". Oh hell yeah. Attachment 574956

[QUOTE=Rich Klein;2346617]One aspect to point out, as I tend to do, is that unless you live without easy driving distance of the NSCC and don't have to pony up for Hotel Rooms and usually more expensive food, you have a minimum of 3K out of your pocket before you even sell a card.

That number is a hard number to match and certainly makes it harder to make your expenses than at a local card show which costs you a few hours and $50 for a table

Of course there are deals at the NSCC but you just have to dig a bit

Rich[/QUOTE

Rich, GREAT point......before you make "deals" you have to recoup your expenses

Higher grades 1950s (7 and above) don't seem to have come down much if any at all. So I would suspect at a show, like most shows including militaria and collectible firearms shows, prices will be through the roof. The best deals are traded between dealers during setup. There will always be a couple hidden gems, but they take searching and a keen eye to find. I have always found the best deals from the guy walking around trying to sell to dealers who have all lowballed him. Go a little higher than the best he was offered and you will have made a great deal.

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Last years National I bought a few oddball items and was thrilled to get them. Didn’t fight dealers over price. Was happy to support someone filling a table. For a real high end item couldn’t see buying it at a show. Seems very unlikely.

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I've never been but if you're hunting the rare stuff it's a good chance you might find it there, I've had board members kind enough to find some significant cards for me at the National. At that point it's a different level, like a guy with a trench coat saying "Pssst.. need any D304's?", "Texas Tommy's?, I have some back at the hotel, follow me.." "Cash only and you don't know my name".
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My experience at the last 5 Nationals I attended: Overpriced, overpriced. No deals to be found. Auction houses had the best material, but it was all stuff we've seen auctioned off in the past, sometimes many times over. A complete waste of time and expenses. Unless I know there's a deal in place whereupon a large stack of $100 bills will be coming my way, I'll never attend another National (and even so, I'd be in and out of the show as quickly as possible).

If anyone thinks they are getting a deal at the National, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell to you :D

Seriously, I believe most dealers don’t need to sell these days. They can sit and hold or sell on another platform. Totally different than the old days.

Makes you question why they'd spend all that time and money to set up at the show. I know I wouldn't, especially if my table space wasn't proximally conducive to walk-ins looking to sell.

I think some of it is they made a killing on cards during the pandemic and banked or invested that money in the stock market. All this talk about a crash and hard landing recession never happened..the stock market is on track this year to do quite well, inflation is coming down and will continue further lower. The economy is not as bad as some media wants you to believe..sure cards are down a little but other then commercial real estate the us is still doing quite well. People are still traveling, and vacationing in record numbers.

prices at the National
 

I have attended somewhere in the neighborhood of a dozen Nationals. It's
been my experience that it's easy to find the "my cards are magically more
valuable than everyone else's of the same grade" dealers. However, the
notion that good deals are "impossible" to find or that "dealers always have
the upper hand" (??!!) hasn't been the case. So long as we are talking about
vintage or older and not new releases- which are a monstrosity I don't even
consider- I've found you can "comparison shop" effectively with a small
amount of organization. Be thorough, take notes on cards you want and
their cost/booth number. Most importantly, size up the guy on the other side
of the table. It's easy to thumb your nose at the guy who says "All prices
are firm", because others are likely to have what he's got while still
remembering the spirit of the word "market". There consistently have
been good finds if you are willing to log the miles on your shoes.

Trent King

“I’m into it for more than that”. In the vernacular of Gen Z, that’s a “you” problem, not a “me” problem. The fact that you made a bad investment is not pertinent to what the card is worth here, now, today. If you are selling a card, you must recognize the market price at that point, sell it and take your financial lumps. Otherwise, you are in the card display business.

“I would lose money on this card.” The fact that I would lose money on one card is not a good metric for whether to make a deal. The proper consideration is whether it is dead inventory. If I have held a card for some time and it is not moving and not growing in price, I dump it and get my money working again.

I read these comments and I came to this conclusion. True, raw vintage has slowed down because there is a lot of it around. However, graded vintage in 8's and higher sell for much more because of the lower pop. They have gone up higher in price. On tobacco cards, it's grades 5 and higher. I've only done a half a dozen Nationals, but as mostly a tobacco cards seller, I tell new customers not to buy from the first day. I tell them to write my booth number down and walk around the rest of the day. Come back the next day and then we do business. The most common line that a customer says at at the National is "Can you do better?" Most dealers try to acknowledge the customer. A few may say that sales are firm. I send very few cards to auction houses. I like selling rare and high grade cards at the National. It makes my booth much more special. I wish all customers the best at the National and success to all the dealers. Hopefully this National will break all attendance records.

In hindsight I made a few collossal blunders at past Nationals. Some guy wanted $6000 for a 1932 US Caramel Gehrig. PSA 6. Wouldn't take plastic and I wasn't heading out into Chicago to round up 60 $100 bills. No ATM in the world will give you that much cash, so I would have likely had to go into town and found a Chase bank somewhere that was open. A ridiculous hassle, but looking at the price of that card today maybe I should have figured it out.

Last National, as the convention went on, I was able to get reasonable prices on a couple of different Mantle's that I purchased. I think if there's a will there's a way, it just requires a lot of searching and negotiating. I was walking an easy 15K steps a day at the convention center alone just moving around.

I’m starting to wonder if this excuse is not the real reason why they don’t want to sell at this price. Because using this excuse is just easier than trying to argue about what it’s really worth.

It seems like in most negotiations, there’s the reason provided, and then there’s the real reason. This one feels more like the reason provided to me.

But I suppose for some people it could actually be their line of reasoning, particularly if they’ve heard it said enough times by others, and they decide it’s their actual reason…

Re: Dealers' Pricing at the National
 

I always get a hearty chuckle out of these threads. This will be my 16th consecutive National; all as a dealer. I think I can count on the thumbs of one hand the number of colleagues who said they were disappointed in their sales. So despite those "exorbitantly high prices", dealers have sufficient sales to make their time, effort and expense worth it.

I think there's an important distinction being overlooked here. If you're looking for a 1965 Mantle in PSA 7 or better, you'll find several dozen to choose from in Chicago. It's not a rare card. By all means ridicule the dealer whose price is double that of the dealer two rows over and won't negotiate. If you're considering a G&B, Old Judge cabinet, E107 HOFer, E271:), T214, etc... and are using ten year old VCP data, then you're sure to be disappointed and may be inclined to bemoan those money-grubbing dealers asking such ridiculous prices. Rare cards can't simply be replaced in the next big auction. Be prepared to pay a premium for them.

This.

Absolute rarity is wonderful. When you have a truly rare item, you can set the price and hold out to get it. I've had buyers try everything they could think of, from inapposite comps to appeals to sentiment, to get a rare card from me. Nope. That is the beauty of owing a rare item: my way or the highway. On the other hand, trying to figure out a price for an absolutely rare card is very challenging and there is a lot of FOMO on both sides when one comes up for sale. No one in the transaction knows for sure if they are making a good deal because there is no market record to speak of. That is also the fun of it: the buyer gets something wonderful and the seller gets a price that makes him happy. So yeah, if you are chasing a card with a few known examples, if you find one at all, you are not gonna find it on discount at any show. I've never once regretted stepping up and buying a rare item at the National; I've very much regretted passing on some of them (damn you to hell, Eddie Collins decal mini-bat!). Ditto selling them. The stuff I wish I still had...Ugh. I am gonna write a column of big fish story regrets. Maybe I will call it "rare cards that were in my hands and I sold them because I am an idiot."

Dealer Pricing at the National
 

Prices being asked post-Covid on this forum are at times, for me at least, evocative of National asking prices. Nothing wrong with that as maybe I just haven't gotten over the sticker shock.

Because maybe not everyone attending the National has the same perspective as those who are posting on this thread. Run of the mill material is gonna be taken back with anyone who brings it there and over prices it. Condition or rarity or scare issues will sell and will sell for record prices. Happens at any show...any auction.

The other aspect I always say (and I will stress this usually does not apply to me as I'm a lower end guy nowadays). If you are looking for what we call in the hobby the "White Whale" and you see said item at a vendor table at the NSCC and you know the price is reasonable -- just buy said item if you can. I can't tell you how many times I heard the story, well I knew it was what I wanted and it was a good deal and I did not pull the trigger. And sure enough. an hour later you went back to the table and someone else bought said item

I'm looking for a few key stars for some of the sets I'm completing, and if I'm successful at getting a couple of them, even in the condition I want so that they are matched condition-wise with the rest of the cards in my near-sets, I know I will overpay. But, at least I'll be able to handle the cards and see any potential issues that I may not be able to see in an enlarged image of cards posted online by an auction house. And I'll be able to compare probably 10 different cards in that grade at various dealers at the show.

But I don't think the majority of my purchases will be impacted badly from price inflation because I still have quite a few commons to purchase, and commons in VG-Ex condition had been going for reasonable prices when I last attended a National 2 years ago. That goes for the more obscure issues (I'm working on my 1962 Salada baseball set). I don't anticipate prices will be jacked up too considerably this year either. Well, at least I'm hoping that's the case!

National pricing has usually been "ahead of the curve". Something to be said for an In person, immediate transaction over ebay.

Yes, it definitely caters to the "I 'need' this card yesterday" crowd, which there have always been a lot of in this hobby.

Dealers' Pricing at the National
 

I’m going to start telling my clients what my expenses are. Curious to how they will react


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It's so popular nobody goes anymore...

Dealers who had booths last year got shut out this year, so apparently someone is selling something to someone at a good enough rate that others want in on the action and can't get it.

I will also say if I had been shopping last year at AC I found literally dozens of items that were priced reasonable. I like odd things so maybe that was part of it, but I like OLD odd things and there were definitely reasonable prices on stuff I thought was cool.

The best deals are not at the national. They are in the few weeks before the national from those going to it. Attendees, seeking to raise capital to purchase their white whales at the national, usually are more willing to move existing cards and negotiate. My haul will come from them; not the overpriced national.

An article from SCD, November 1979. :)

I have found the national to be a great place to go to reconnect and make friends, a bad place to buy cards. The only real buys I have gotten were when I took the time to dig through massive quarter bins, but that's really not what you go to the National for. TBH, I haven't found all that much luck looking for the obscure things on my checklist either. I have been looking for a Jacksonville Jaguars team issue of Chris Parker for years without a sniff of luck.

Great post Steve. So, even in the Good’ol days of yore, articles were written about prices and the hobby was about money with cards appreciating and dealers looking to get top prices.

Those who say that the hobby used to not be about money/flipping/investment are not telling the full story. I started collecting in 1982 and everyone had price guides, trades only happened if the values were relatively equal, everyone opened boxes looking for the rookies and chucked the commons, and price was a (if not) the primary consideration behind what someone bought or sold.

While much has changed in the “hobby”, it’s still largely the same.

Exactly. :). Even hobby publications in the 1960s regularly commented on rapid price appreciation.

Rare stuff will be priced high as it should be. It’s on the buyer and seller to work out something both are happy with, but it benefits both when there’s a starting price, even if it’s high.

Less rare stuff that is in demand will be all over the place, like every show.

Old vintage has been overpriced for a while now. Last year I only walked away with one card at the national because of the prices.

That being said, you can find good deals. I did find an Old Judge Hugh Duffy at a good price. Its faded and in an old SCG slab, but still a great card non the less.

My advice would be to walk around and hit every table. Have a notebook and write down the cards that catch your eye and the price. After you did a walk of the floor, sit down somewhere and see what cards in your notebook seem to have the best deal.

Also, if you can wait, Sunday prices are more reasonable.

Oh , This.
 

... That hurried panting messyhandful o'cash-flashing late Sunday afternoon ambush pleading , just as the packing-up gets serious , works sometimes. But the National Regulars uhhhh , I dunno. Hi , Dan.
..
,

like shooting fish in a barrel

Most of the dealers at the National are there to sell. I know I have been for the 12 Nationals I have previously set up at. Certainly, there are some museums there in which the dealers could care less if they sell anything or not but the vast majority are there to sell.

If you think you are going to find a T206 Green Border Cobb in a PSA 5 for a bargain price, then you are going to the wrong place.

However, deals will be had all over the room from the first row to the last on cards, autographs, and memorabilia. You just have to look, ask for pricing, and negotiate.

Well, what the heck else is it for? I've pulled some amazing stuff over the years because I roll up my sleeves and go at it. I get to the show when it opens, stay to the close every day, and spend the whole day each day sifting through stuff until the holder cuts on my fingers need bandaging (and I have bandages and tape in my bag so i can clean up and go right back to it). Then again, I am a picker by nature. The thing I love most about collecting is the pick, spotting the gold in the scrap pile. Reminds me of finding boxes of cards at junk shops or receiving boxes of cards from family friends who were throwing their kids' cards away, like when I was a kid. Sometimes it can seem pretty ridiculous that I sit around sifting through ‘junk’, but it pays off, like the time I was going through a $0.10 box at the National. I got some crap for that from fellow collectors passing by, but that was just fine by me because I was mining a run of high grade 1970s football and hockey in that box, and I was pulling a stack of $1-$50 cards out of there. I spent $10 in half an hour and walked away with hundreds of dollars in resale value. I will take that deal all day, every day, but that never happens if you turn up your nose and refuse to put in the work.

Well said!

For me, there are always more cards to buy at the National than I usually have money. If you have the time and intestinal fortitude to look for them deals are always there. It can be a grind though and you need to have a pretty wide area of expertise. If you are extremely focused on a specialized collection then you will likely come away with very little.

In other words…Tons of bargains to be had if you look around and know what things typically sell for…if you are looking for T206 in grades 4 to 4.5 with yellow backgrounds of American League players in PSA holders from even # aisles… you may have a problem! 🤣

Our perspective shapes our reality.

Well said!

For me, there are always more cards to buy at the National than I usually have money. If you have the time and intestinal fortitude to look for them deals are always there. It can be a grind though and you need to have a pretty wide area of expertise. If you are extremely focused on a specialized collection then you will likely come away with very little.

In other words…Tons of bargains to be had if you look around and know what things typically sell for…if you are looking for T206 in grades 4 to 4.5 with yellow backgrounds of American League players in PSA holders from even # aisles… you may have a problem! 🤣

Our perspective shapes our reality.

And by the time you get back to those tables, the good deals will be long gone. If you see something good at the show for a good price, you have to pounce on it or it will sell to someone else. I've made that mistake more than once because I didn't want to pay for something too soon on the first day. :(

Having worked both sides of the aisle at the Nat'l, I would only offer 2 nuggets:
1. When buying something special, the fatal line is, "Is that the best you can do?". Instead throw up a number less than what you might eventually be willing to pay. The dealer might then knock something off and then the true negotiating begins and who knows you might get the card.
2. This is just a personal dislike. I can hardly be polite when a card bro slithers around, opens his shinny card briefcase, drops a PSA 10 Zion Williams card, 1 of 25, jockstrap swatch and says something to effect that he could let me have it for the "distressed" price of $90,000. Of course, he hasn't even looked once at my cases that are nothing but pre-War and vintage. Short discussion.

Ha! #1 is spot on and the way transactions get done, #2 gave me a chuckle, thanks John.

I agree with Adam. I spent years attending and setting up at shows. I would walk around looking for cards on my want list, but I would always go through the dealers 1957 Topps commons. My time was rewarded by finding two Bakep error cards and paying pennies because the dealer classified them as commons. Not every dealer is aware of every possible card of value and if you have the time and the patience, you can take advantage of their lack of knowledge or maybe on a kinder note, their laziness in determing what they really had. And as a side-note as to the scarcity of the Bakep card - probably 15 years of shows and only found 2.

Part of what I love about net54 is that it's is own bubble and completely sheltered from the non-vintage hobby, but concurrently expects the pricing of 5 years ago.

Do buyers ever think about where an item is sourced from? If not from private collection buys--which are more infrequent now more than ever--it's from online, or more specifically, an auction house.

Modern cards sell below comps because people fundamentally do not want them. It's all buying and selling and it's commonly accepted that there will always be someone selling the same card cheaper. This is simply not the case for most vintage, especially examples that scarcely come to market.

It's all on perspective. I agree most vintage "dealers" are way more out of touch, but ultimately the remark of "what I'm into it for" stands true. They're the one sourcing absolutely everything, and on items where they have the leverage to sell high, they're going to maximize their dollar both out of their own self interest and that it cost them a pretty penny in the first place (nobody is selling Mantle's at 85% of their going rate).

If a dealer is paying top dollar at an auction house, why should you be entitled to it for less? By that same token, net54 forum readers are some of the most passionate about vintage and collecting and general, and are often putting in the same amount of time digging for deals as "dealers." The ultimate buyers are people who invest less time in digging for deals themselves and are willing to get access for a high end card actually available for sale, even if its at a god forbid 10-15% premium.